Risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE)is elevated in cancer, but individual risk factors cannot identify a sufficiently highrisk group of outpatients for thromboprophylaxis. We developed a simple model for predicting chemotherapy-associated VTE using baseline clinical and laboratory variables. The association of VTE with multiple variables was characterized in a derivation cohort of 2701 cancer outpatients from a prospective observational study. A risk model was derived and validated in an independent cohort of 1365 patients from the same study. Five predictive variables were identified in a multivariate model: site of cancer (2 points for very high-risk site, 1 point for highrisk site), platelet count of 350 ؋ 10 9 /L or more, hemoglobin less than 100 g/L (10 g/dL) and/or use of erythropoiesisstimulating agents, leukocyte count more than 11 ؋ 10 9 /L, and body mass index of 35 kg/m 2 or more (1 point each). Rates of VTE in the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively, were 0.8% and 0.3% in low-risk (score ؍ 0), 1.8% and 2% in intermediate-risk (score ؍ 1-2), and 7.1% and 6.7% in high-risk (score > 3) category over a median of 2.5 months (Cstatistic ؍ 0.7 for both cohorts). This model can identify patients with a nearly 7% short-term risk of symptomatic VTE and may be used to select cancer outpatients for studies of thromboprophylaxis.
IntroductionCancer and antineoplastic therapy are frequently complicated by the development of venous thromboembolism (VTE). Several risk factors for cancer-associated VTE have been described in recent studies and include primary site of cancer, presence of metastatic disease, and use of antineoplastic therapy including chemotherapy, hormonal therapy, surgery, and erythropoiesis-stimulating agents. [1][2][3][4] Cancer patients on active therapy are at greatest risk for development of VTE. In a population-based study, cancer was associated with a 4.1-fold greater risk of thrombosis, whereas the use of chemotherapy increased the risk 6.5-fold. 5,6 In women with stage II breast cancer, the risk of VTE decreases dramatically after chemotherapy is completed. 7,8 The occurrence of VTE has important implications for the cancer patient including requirement for chronic anticoagulation, possible delays in delivering chemotherapy, a high risk of recurrent VTE, risk of bleeding complications on anticoagulation, decreased quality of life, and consumption of health care resources. 9,10 Furthermore, cancer patients with VTE have a 2-fold or greater increase in mortality compared with cancer patients without VTE, even after adjusting for stage. 11,12 Indeed, thromboembolism is a leading cause of death in cancer patients. 13 Primary VTE prophylaxis can reduce deep vein thrombosis (DVT), pulmonary embolism (PE), and fatal PE in several highrisk populations such as hospitalized patients or in the postoperative setting. [14][15][16][17][18] In the cancer population, identification of patients most at risk for VTE followed by institution of effective prophylaxis could improve morbidity, m...