The role of forecasting in working out regional development Strategy

Abstract

The article analyzes methodological problems of forecasting in the socioeconomic development of a region-a constituency of the Russian Federation. It presents possibilities for implementing the scenario's approach, based on the example of Murmansk oblast. It attempts to explain in detail alternative ways of development and to consider the current trend of growing economic instability.

Ecological and economic models and predictions in the regional management system

“…Construction of ecological and economic models and predictions based on them make it possible to develop a prospective con cept of regional development taking into account the peculiarities of territories. Various scenarios of eco nomic development imply significantly different eco logical consequences, which should be analyzed and considered in the process of decision making at federal and regional levels.In fact, when market oriented reforms began, a new system of regional economic management started forming based on planned economy methods adapted for the new conditions and methods borrowed from developed countries, which cannot be successfully applied without taking specific Russian features into consideration [1][2][3]. Therefore, a new regional system for the prediction, strategic planning, and program ming of economic development was required, which would be relatively independent, consider both federal and regional interests, and have a prediction period of about 15-25 years with the preparation of more detailed documents for the nearest years [4][5][6].…”

“…In fact, when market oriented reforms began, a new system of regional economic management started forming based on planned economy methods adapted for the new conditions and methods borrowed from developed countries, which cannot be successfully applied without taking specific Russian features into consideration [1][2][3]. Therefore, a new regional system for the prediction, strategic planning, and program ming of economic development was required, which would be relatively independent, consider both federal and regional interests, and have a prediction period of about 15-25 years with the preparation of more detailed documents for the nearest years [4][5][6].…”