The uncertainties of a Pd3–PGV onsite earthquake early warning system

Wang, Jui Pin; Wu, Yih‐Min; Lin, Tsair-Fuh; Brant, Logan

doi:10.1016/j.soildyn.2011.12.005

Cited by 20 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 14 publications

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“…This was advanced in Wu et al (2013) through the integration of basic decision theory, and the updated methodology was applied to the automated process of elevator control in Wu et al (2016). Additional examples of EEW risk‐based decision‐making procedures proposed in the literature are those documented in Grasso et al (2007), Salzano et al (2009), Wang et al (2012), and Le Guenan et al. (2016).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A decision‐making methodology for risk‐informed earthquake early warning

Cremen

Galasso

2021

Computer aided Civil Eng

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To maximize the potential of earthquake early warning (EEW) as a credible tool for seismic resilience promotion, it should be combined with next-generation decision-support tools that use advanced risk-based predictions and account for unavoidable malfunctions of the system (i.e., false alarms) to determine whether or not alerts/mitigation actions should be triggered. This work contributes to the required effort by developing a novel end-user-oriented approach for decision making related to very short-term earthquake risk management. The proposed methodology unifies earthquake-engineering-related performance assessment procedures/metrics (for end-user-focused damage and consequence estimation) with multicriteria decision-making tools (to consider end-user preferences toward different types of risks). It is demonstrated for EEW in a hypothetical school building, to specifically investigate the optimal decisions (i.e., "trigger"/"do not trigger" alerts) for a range of earthquake scenarios with varying parameter uncertainties. In particular, it is found that the best action for a given ground-shaking intensity can depend on stakeholder (end-user) preferences.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A decision‐making methodology for risk‐informed earthquake early warning

Cremen

Galasso

2021

Computer aided Civil Eng

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“…For example, Zollo et al (2010) propose to fix several thresholds within a 57 two-parameter space (comprised of the average period of the P-wave signal and the peak 58 displacement) but their approach is based on the hazard rather than by considering the potential 59 losses connected with a potential risk-reduction action. On the other hand, Wang et al (2012) 60 develop an approach that does consider losses but the loss model is simple and user preferences are 61 not taken into account when setting the threshold. Iervolino et al (2007) use a more sophisticated 62 loss model but again the preferences of the user are not considered.…”

Section: Introduction 27mentioning

confidence: 99%

Accounting for end-user preferences in earthquake early warning systems

Guenan

Smaï

Loschetter

et al. 2015

Bull Earthquake Eng

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11Earthquake early warning systems (EEWSs) that rapidly trigger risk-reduction actions after a 12 potentially-damaging earthquake is detected are an attractive tool to reduce seismic losses. One 13 brake on their implementation in practice is the difficulty in setting the threshold required to trigger 14 pre-defined actions: set the level too high and the action is not triggered before potentially-15 damaging shaking occurs and set the level too low and the action is triggered too readily. Balancing 16 these conflicting requirements of an EEWS requires a consideration of the preferences of its 17 potential end users. In this article a framework to define these preferences, as part of a participatory 18 decision making procedure, is presented. An aspect of this framework is illustrated for a hypothetical 19 toll bridge in a seismically-active region, where the bridge owners wish to balance the risk to people 20 crossing the bridge with the loss of toll revenue and additional travel costs in case of bridge closure. 21Multi-Attribute Utility Theory (MAUT) is used to constrain the trigger threshold for four owners with 22 different preferences. We find that MAUT is an appealing and transparent way of aiding the 23 potentially controversial decision of what level of risk to accept in EEW. 24

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“…This method was firstly developed by Utsu [1], [2], Rikitake [3], and Hagiwara [4]. Nowadays, the researcher has developed the probabilistic analysis to predict the time of next earthquake in some specific areas such as Mexico, Mexico,Turkey, Teheran, Italy, Los Angeles and Taiwan [5]- [9].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Java Language Program Application on Predicting the Next Earthquake in Indonesia

Muhammad¹,

Anggraini²

2013

JACN

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Abstract-This paper applied the use of Java programming language to create a program named Java Earthquake Program (JEP) used to forecast the next earthquake in Indonesia. The 133 earthquake events from United States Geological Survey (USGS) occurred in the period of 1954 to 2012 were used to build the program. Three probabilistic models were used to model the earthquake data in Indonesia which are normal, gamma, and beta distributions. The goodness fit tests result from Java earthquake program (JEP) confirmed that gamma distribution is reliable to model the earthquake data in Indonesia. The calculation result of maximum conditional probability from JEP indicated that the next earthquake will be occurred on the date range of August 27, 2012 to February 19, 2013 with M w ≥ 5.0. This exactly confirmed that JEP is reliable to predict the earthquake recurrence time in Indonesia.Index Terms-Java earthquake program (JEP), gamma, earthquake recurrence time.

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The uncertainties of a Pd3–PGV onsite earthquake early warning system

Cited by 20 publications

References 14 publications

A decision‐making methodology for risk‐informed earthquake early warning

A decision‐making methodology for risk‐informed earthquake early warning

Accounting for end-user preferences in earthquake early warning systems

Java Language Program Application on Predicting the Next Earthquake in Indonesia

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