Timescale dependence of the relationship between the East Asian summer monsoon strength and precipitation over eastern China in the last millennium

Jian, Shi; Yan, Qing; Wang, Huijun

doi:10.5194/cp-14-577-2018

Cited by 14 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 52 publications

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“…There are six megadroughts (marked in gray) in the reconstruction data (Figure 1a), while there are five megadroughts in the control run (Figure 1b) and 3-6 megadroughts in the forced runs (Figure 1c-g). Previous studies [45] have shown that CESM broadly reproduces the observed EASM and EASM-precipitation relationship with some small biases. Recall a megadrought event is defined as a period with precipitation anomalies less than zero for at least 20 consecutive years, and those drought events that do not persist for 20 years are not considered megadrought events in this study.…”

Section: Simulated Megadroughtsmentioning

confidence: 62%

Variability and Mechanisms of Megadroughts over Eastern China during the Last Millennium: A Model Study

et al. 2018

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The variability and mechanisms of multi-decadal megadroughts over eastern China during the last millennium were investigated using a control, full-forcing, and four sensitivity experiments from the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Last Millennium Ensemble (LME) archive. The model simulated megadroughts have comparable magnitudes and durations with those derived from reconstructed proxy data, although the megadroughts are not temporally synchronous. In all experiments, the megadroughts exhibit similar spatial structures, corresponding to a weakening of the East Asia summer monsoon (EASM) and a strengthening of the East Asia winter monsoon (EAWM). The results show that internal climate variability within the coupled climate system plays an essential role in triggering megadroughts, while different external forcings may contribute to persistence and modify the anomaly patterns of megadroughts. A pattern of meridional tripolar (warm-cold-warm) sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the western Pacific stretching from the equator to high latitude is responsible for the EASM weakening and EAWM strengthening. The weakening of the EASM and strengthening of the EAWM are essentially caused by negative SST anomalies over the northwestern Pacific and positive SST anomalies over the equatorial western Pacific, which are associated with a La Niña-like SST gradient across the tropical Pacific. The external forcings prolong the megadroughts through maintenance of the meridional tripolar SST anomalies and enlarge the megadrought spatial extent by magnifying the meridional tripolar SST anomalies.

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Section: Simulated Megadroughtsmentioning

confidence: 62%

Variability and Mechanisms of Megadroughts over Eastern China during the Last Millennium: A Model Study

et al. 2018

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“…Moreover, it did not show a significant downtrend as most models did (Figure 5b). This could be related to the inadequacy of CSIRO-Mk3L-1-2 in reproducing the modern East Asian summer monsoon (Shi et al, 2018), which is a key system for precipitation over China. Second, GISS-E2-R-p121 showed a large downtrend, which was at least double the magnitude of the other models (Figure 5c) and might be linked to its cooling drift (Coats et al, 2015a).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A multi-model analysis of ‘Little Ice Age’ climate over China

2019

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Using the numerical experiments undertaken by nine climate models within the framework of the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (PMIP3), the ensemble simulations with the Community Earth System Model for the last millennium (CESM-LME), and proxy data, we investigate the climate over China during the ‘Little Ice Age’ (LIA; from 1450 to 1850 CE) against the background of the last millennium (from 850 to 1850 CE). The surface air temperature averaged over China generally decreased over time during the last millennium, with several multi-decadal to centennial variations superimposed on the long-term cooling. Relative to the climatology of the last millennium, the annual surface temperature during the LIA decreased over the country, with an average cooling of −0.07°C for the median of the PMIP3 models. Different magnitudes of cooling occurred in all seasons except spring. The cooling over China during the LIA was largely attributed to changes in volcanic eruptions and land use, while the change in orbital parameters played a role on a seasonal scale. The precipitation over China during the LIA decreased for the annual mean and summer and autumn but slightly increased in winter and spring. Model–data comparisons indicate that the models reproduced the colder and drier climate of the LIA reasonably, although there are some differences in certain aspects.

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“…Shi et al . () also found that the nonstationary decadal EASM‐precipitation relationship may be attributed to the internal variability of the climate system. Previous studies (Li et al ., ; Yang et al ., ; Li and Wang, ) indicated that the spatial pattern of annual precipitation anomalies over the eastern China and EASM anomalies are closely associated with the decadal Pacific SST pattern, such as the PDO (Ma, ; Zhang and Zhou, ) For example, Yang et al .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 89%

Assessment of PMIP3 model simulations of megadroughts over the eastern China during the last millennium

Qin

Ning

Chen

et al. 2020

Intl Journal of Climatology

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The simulated spatiotemporal characteristics and variability of decadal megadroughts over the eastern China during the last millennium of 7 model simulations from the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (PMIP3) archive were assessed, and the corresponding mechanisms of the megadroughts were also investigated. The simulated megadrought features of frequencies, durations, magnitudes and spatial distributions were compared with reconstructed data. Comparison showed that climate models can reasonably reproduce the major features of megadroughts, however, the simulated megadroughts are not temporal synchronous with the reconstructed megadroughts, indicating that the internal variability rather than external forcing initiates the observed megadroughts. The simulated spatial distributions of wind and sea level pressure (SLP) anomalies during megadrought years showed that megadroughts over the eastern China corresponded to weakening of the East Asia Summer Monsoon (EASM) and strengthening of the East Asia Winter Monsoon (EAWM). A pattern of sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) with significant negative SSTA over the western central North Pacific and significant positive SSTA over eastern North Pacific and equatorial Pacific, resembling a positive PDO-like pattern, was found to suppress precipitation in eastern China. Therefore, it could be concluded that that internal climate variability is the main trigger of the megadroughts over the eastern China, while the North Pacific decadal variability is considered the key driving factor influencing the EASM and EAWM. K E Y W O R D S climate dynamics, climate modelling, east Asia climate change and climate variability, east Asian summer monsoon, eastern China, megadrought, models assessment

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Timescale dependence of the relationship between the East Asian summer monsoon strength and precipitation over eastern China in the last millennium

Cited by 14 publications

References 52 publications

Variability and Mechanisms of Megadroughts over Eastern China during the Last Millennium: A Model Study

Variability and Mechanisms of Megadroughts over Eastern China during the Last Millennium: A Model Study

A multi-model analysis of ‘Little Ice Age’ climate over China

Assessment of PMIP3 model simulations of megadroughts over the eastern China during the last millennium

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