Uncertainty assessment of climate change impacts on the hydrology of small prairie wetlands

Zhang, Hua; Huang, Guohe; Wang, Dunling; Zhang, Xiaodong

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.10.037

Cited by 97 publications

(53 citation statements)

References 40 publications

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“…While this has been done for North America (e.g. Radić and Clarke, 2011;Zhang et al, 2011), river basins originating in the European Alps (e.g. Huss, 2011;Farinotti et al, 2012), for river basins worldwide (e.g.…”

Section: A F Lutz Et Al: Climate Change Implications For Central Amentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparison of climate change signals in CMIP3 and CMIP5 multi-model ensembles and implications for Central Asian glaciers

Lutz

Immerzeel

Gobiet

et al. 2013

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Central Asian water resources largely depend on melt water generated in the Pamir and Tien Shan mountain ranges. To estimate future water availability in this region, it is necessary to use climate projections to estimate the future glacier extent and volume. In this study, we evaluate the impact of uncertainty in climate change projections on the future glacier extent in the Amu and Syr Darya river basins. To this end we use the latest climate change projections generated for the upcoming IPCC report (CMIP5) and, for comparison, projections used in the fourth IPCC assessment (CMIP3). With these projections we force a regionalized glacier mass balance model, and estimate changes in the basins' glacier extent as a function of the glacier size distribution in the basins and projected temperature and precipitation. This glacier mass balance model is specifically developed for implementation in large scale hydrological models, where the spatial resolution does not allow for simulating individual glaciers and data scarcity is an issue. Although the CMIP5 ensemble results in greater regional warming than the CMIP3 ensemble and the range in projections for temperature as well as precipitation is wider for the CMIP5 than for the CMIP3, the spread in projections of future glacier extent in Central Asia is similar for both ensembles. This is because differences in temperature rise are small during periods of maximum melt (July-September) while differences in precipitation change are small during the period of maximum accumulation (October-February). However, the model uncertainty due to parameter uncertainty is high, and has roughly the same importance as uncertainty in the climate projections. Uncertainty about the size of the decline in glacier extent remains large, making estimates of future Central Asian glacier evolution and downstream water availability uncertain.

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Section: A F Lutz Et Al: Climate Change Implications For Central Amentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparison of climate change signals in CMIP3 and CMIP5 multi-model ensembles and implications for Central Asian glaciers

Lutz

Immerzeel

Gobiet

et al. 2013

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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“…Daily maximum and minimum temperatures, solar radiation and relative humidity are then generated based on the presence or absence of rain for the day [40]. WXGEN stochastic weather generator is widely used for climate change studies [11,41,42].…”

Section: Scenarios Of Temperature Rainfall and Co2 Concentration Chamentioning

confidence: 99%

Water Resources Response to Changes in Temperature, Rainfall and CO2 Concentration: A First Approach in NW Spain

Arias

Rodríguez‐Blanco

Nunes

et al. 2014

Water

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Assessment of the diverse responses of water resources to climate change and high concentrations of CO2 is crucial for the appropriate management of natural ecosystems. Despite numerous studies on the impact of climate change on different regions, it is still necessary to evaluate the impact of these changes at the local scale. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used to evaluate the potential impact of changes in temperature, rainfall and CO2 concentration on water resources in a rural catchment in NW Spain for the periods 2031-2060 and 2069-2098, using 1981-2010 as a reference period. For the simulations we used compiled regional climate models of the ENSEMBLES project for future climate input data and two CO2 concentration scenarios (550 and 660 ppm). The results showed that changes in the concentration of CO2 and climate had a significant effect on water resources. Overall, the results suggest a decrease in streamflow of 16% for the period 2031-2060 (intermediate future) and 35% by the end of the 21st century as a consequence of decreasing rainfall (2031-2060: −6%; 2069-2098: −15%) and increasing temperature

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“…In particular, Gassman et al (2007) in their comprehensive review of SWAT model applications reported 22 peer-reviewed papers devoted to climate change impact assessment using SWAT (this number has undoubtedly grown since then; e.g. Kingston and Taylor 2010, Parajuli 2010, Zhang et al 2011, including related models, such as SWIM (Krysanova et al 1998). These assessments are typically done for small (49.6 km 2 ; Zhang et al 2011), medium (2098 km 2 ; Kingston and Taylor 2010) and large catchments (13 000-147 423 km 2 ; Huang et al 2010).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Kingston and Taylor 2010, Parajuli 2010, Zhang et al 2011, including related models, such as SWIM (Krysanova et al 1998). These assessments are typically done for small (49.6 km 2 ; Zhang et al 2011), medium (2098 km 2 ; Kingston and Taylor 2010) and large catchments (13 000-147 423 km 2 ; Huang et al 2010). For water resources management, climate change impact assessments made at the medium and large scale are the most desired.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effect of modelling scale on the assessment of climate change impact on river runoff

Piniewski

Voß

Bärlund

et al. 2013

Hydrological Sciences Journal

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The effect of using two distributed hydrological models with different degrees of spatial aggregation on the assessment of climate change impact on river runoff was investigated. Analyses were conducted in the Narew River basin situated in northeast Poland using a global hydrological model (WaterGAP) and a catchment-scale hydrological model (SWAT). Climate change was represented in both models by projected changes in monthly temperature and precipitation between the period 2040-2069 and the baseline period, resulting from two general circulation models: IPSL-CM4 and MIROC3.2, both coupled with the SRES A2 emissions scenario. The degree of consistency between the global and the catchment model was very high for mean annual runoff, and medium for indicators of high and low runoff. It was observed that SWAT generally suggests changes of larger magnitude than WaterGAP for both climate models, but SWAT and WaterGAP were consistent as regards the direction of change in monthly runoff. The results indicate that a global model can be used in Central and Eastern European lowlands to identify hot-spots where a catchment-scale model should be applied to evaluate, e.g. the effectiveness of management options.

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Uncertainty assessment of climate change impacts on the hydrology of small prairie wetlands

Cited by 97 publications

References 40 publications

Comparison of climate change signals in CMIP3 and CMIP5 multi-model ensembles and implications for Central Asian glaciers

Comparison of climate change signals in CMIP3 and CMIP5 multi-model ensembles and implications for Central Asian glaciers

Water Resources Response to Changes in Temperature, Rainfall and CO2 Concentration: A First Approach in NW Spain

Effect of modelling scale on the assessment of climate change impact on river runoff

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