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A multivariate model for predicting the risk of decompensated chronic heart failure (CHF) within 48 weeks after ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) has been developed and tested. Methods. The study included 173 patients with acute STEMI aged 51.4 (95% confidence interval (CI): 42–61) years. Two-dimensional (2D) speckle-tracking echocardiography (STE) has been performed on the 7th–9th days, and at the 12th, 24th, and 48th weeks after the index event with the analysis of volumetric parameters and values for global longitudinal strain (GLS), global circumferential strain (GCS), and global radial strain (GRS). A 24-h ECG monitoring (24 h ECG) of the electrocardiogram (ECG) to assess heart rate turbulence (HRT) has been performed on the 7th–9th days of STEMI. The study involved two stages of implementation. At the first stage, a multivariate model to assess the risk of CHF progression within 48 weeks after STEMI has been built on the basis of examination and follow-up data for 113 patients (group M). At the second stage, the performance of the model has been assessed based on a 48-week follow-up of 60 patients (group T). Results. A multivariate regression model for CHF progression in STEMI patients has been created based on the results of the first stage. It included the following parameters: HRT, left ventricular (LV) end-systolic dimension (ESD), and GLS. The contribution of each factor for the relative risk (RR) of decompensated CHF has been found: 3.92 (95% CI: 1.66–9.25) (p = 0.0018) for HRT; 1.04 (95% CI: 1.015–1.07) (p = 0.0027) for ESD; 0.9 (95% CI: 0.815–0.98) (p = 0.028) for GLS. The diagnostic efficiency of the proposed model has been evaluated at the second stage. It appeared to have a high specificity of 83.3%, a sensitivity of 95.8%, and a diagnostic accuracy of 93.3%. Conclusion. The developed model for predicting CHF progression within 48 weeks after STEMI has a high diagnostic efficiency and can be used in early stages of myocardial infarction to stratify the risk of patients.

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Background. In modern cardiology, 24-hour electrocardiogram (ECG) monitoring has a high diagnostic value, but this method has a number of disadvantages in detecting episodes of unstable life-threatening arrhythmias. An increase in ECG monitoring duration allows expanding the possibilities of diagnosing life-threatening arrhythmias.Objective. To study the possibilities of long-term ECG monitoring (48–120 hours) in the detection of life-threatening arrhythmic events and parameters of myocardial electrical instability in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI).Design and methods. The study included 71 STEMI patients. All patients from the 4th day of STEMI underwent multi-day ECG monitoring in 3 leads using a telemetric ECG recording complex with an average recording duration of 90.4 ± 30.2 hours. The analysis of episodes of myocardial ischemia, rhythm and conduction disturbances, turbulence and heart rate variability, late ventricular potentials and dispersion of the QT interval within 5 days was carried out.Results. Long-term monitoring allowed detecting high-grade ventricular extrasystoles. Analysis of episodes of myocardial ischemia in the postinfarction period revealed significant differences in the data of 120h-ECG monitoring in comparison with 24h-ECG. Multiday ECG monitoring made it possible to detect dysfunction of the autonomic regulation of cardiac activity in patients 2 times more often.Conclusion. A comprehensive assessment of the possibilities of multi-day ECG monitoring is a promising direction in predicting severe arrhythmias in patients in the postinfarction period.