In modern conditions, the prediction of the morbidity of the population is becoming one of the most urgent tasks of public health worldwide. For state and international health services, with the help of forecasting the possible incidence and prevalence of various diseases in the general population, it becomes necessary to improve the system of providing specialized care due to the possibility of an updated calculation of the necessary resources. Purpose of the study is to analyze the methodological basis for predicting the morbidity of the population based on the study and generalization of literary sources. Materials and methods. The materials for the analysis were scientific publications on the issues of forecasting and modeling of morbidity in various subgroups of the population and territories of the Russian Federation and other countries. In the course of the research, such methods as comparative analysis, study and generalization of experience, bibliographic were used. Results. Currently, there are a number of studies devoted to disease prediction, and the number of methodological approaches to predicting possible changes in the epidemiological situation in various territories is growing. The study provides an overview of existing methodological approaches to predicting the morbidity of the population in Russia and in the world community. Findings. Thus, the analysis of the experience of predicting morbidity made it possible to determine the features of the use of certain mixed methods of forecasting different classes, groups and types of diseases, especially when identifying new viruses and infectious diseases.

At present, besides of the particular important preventive orientation of the health service, the creation of a unified preventive environment in society becomes the most relevant. According to the official statistical data, unfavourable trends of increasing in primary and common morbidity are noted. In adolescent group of population, the propagation of diseases of endocrine system (obesity, diabetes mellitus) and of urogenital system intensively increases. Among adult population as previously the first place belongs to diseases of cardiovascular system. With the purpose to change existing conditions, the priority attention is to be focused on processes of sanitary hygienic education of children and adolescent population and measures of overcoming harmful habits, and the implementation of new technologies into functioning of public health and medical prevention centers. The purpose of the study is to determine possible basic directions of development of public health and medical prevention centers in the Russian Federation as examplified by management of prevention of non-communicable diseases in population of various age categories. Material and methods. The theoretical material of the research was the Federal legislation, normative and legislative acts, scientific publications of such bases as eLibrary (RSCI), CyberLeninka, MedLine, Scopus. In the course of this research, bibliographic, informational and analytical method, content analysis, and a comparative analysis were applied. The certain characteristics of public health and medical prevention centers activities for different age groups were systematized and presented as exemplified by management of prevention on non-infectious diseases in population, main directions of development of these medical institutions were determined, considering current demographic situation and implementation of new health-saving technologies. Conclusions. The analysis demonstrated the introduction of new management technologies and tools in public health and medical prevention centers will increase the interest of patients in their health, awareness of the population of different age groups about the existence of these medical institutions, and ensure preventive activity of citizens.

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The article identifies the main dynamic changes in the disability of the children population. The goal of the study is to analyze the main trends and regional differences in the growth of the proportion of disabled children in recent years in all age groups of the population in the Russian Federation. As a result, the analysis can be the basis for the development of new rehabilitation programs and the implementation of appropriate preventive measures to improve the quality of life of disabled children in Russia