In this paper, a model for the distribution of the Global Carbon Budget between the countries of the world is presented. The model is based on the criteria of equity while also taking into account the different historical responsibilities. The Global Carbon Budget corresponds to the quantity of carbon dioxide emissions that can still be released into the atmosphere while maintaining the increase in the average earth surface temperature below 2°C, and it is therefore compatible with the long-term objective defined in the Paris Agreement. The results of applying the model are shown both for the 15 emitters that currently top the ranking for world emissions as well as for the other countries, which are grouped together in three main groups: Other African, Other Latin American and Caribbean, and the Rest of the World. Mitigation curves compatible with the carbon budget allocated to the different countries are presented. When comparing each emitter's historical emissions for the period 1971-2010 with the proposed distribution for the period 2011-2050 obtained using the model, it can be seen that developed countries must face the future with a greatly reduced carbon budget, whereas developing countries can make use of a carbon budget that is higher than their cumulative historical emissions. Finally, there is a discussion about how a model with these characteristics could be useful when implementing the Paris Agreement.

Purpose The main purpose of this paper is to introduce the concept of global carbon budget (GCB) as a key concept that should be introduced as a reference when countries formulate their mitigation contributions in the context of the Paris Agreement and in all the monitoring, reporting and verification processes that must be implemented according to the decisions of the Paris Summit. Design/methodology/approach A method based on carbon budget accounting is used to analyze the intended nationally determined contributions (INDCs) submitted by the 15 countries that currently head the ranking of global emissions. Moreover, these INDCs are analyzed and compared with each other. Sometimes, inadequate methodologies and a diverse level of ambition in the formulated targets are observed. Findings It is found that the INDCs of those 15 countries alone imply the release into the atmosphere of 84 per cent of the GCB for the period 2011-2030, and 40 per cent of the GCB available until the end of the century. Originality/value This is the first time the INDCs of the top 15 emitters are analyzed. It is also the first analysis made using the GCB approach. This paper suggests methodological changes in the way that the future NDCs might be formulated.

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The mitigation required to achieve the 1.5 °C goal of the Paris Agreement entails drastic emission reductions. The mentioned goal is of special interest for regions like the Mediterranean where the average temperature is rising above the world average with the consequential risk for the future viability of its different ecosystems. The objective of this work is to analyze if the commitments of the Mediterranean basin countries submitted under the Paris Agreement framework are in line with the 1.5 °C goal. For this analysis, the cumulative emissions of the current Nationally Determined Contributions of these countries until 2030, are compared with the result obtained from distributing the cumulative greenhouse gas emissions compatible with the 1.5 °C global mitigation scenario between 2018 and 2100. This distribution is obtained using the Model of Climate Justice that allocates the global emissions by using equity criteria (equality and responsibility) that take into consideration the historical responsibility for each country, in the period from 1994 to 2017. There are two main conclusions from the analysis of the NDCs. Firstly, it is concluded that the Mediterranean basin countries as a whole, are not in line with the 1.5 °C goal, because by 2030, 77% of the emissions budget that will be available until 2100, based on the equity criteria aforementioned, will already have been emitted. And, secondly, when the NDCs for each one of the countries are compared some significant differences in the degree of ambition can be seen.

During the past years, the impact of climate change in the Latin America region has become more evident, and is affecting its natural resources and delaying sustainable development. Achieving the 1.5°C long-term temperature goal of the Paris Agreement while ensuring the right to sustainable development, is of particular interest for regions such as Latin America which are highly vulnerable and have a low capacity of adaptation. This article seeks to analyse if the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) submitted within the Paris Agreement framework by the Latin American countries align with achieving the 1.5°C goal. For this analysis, the cumulative emissions for the 2018–2100 period are distributed among the region and its countries using the climate justice criteria (equality and historical responsibility) outlined in the Model of Climate Justice (MCJ). The results of the MCJ compatible with the 1.5°C global temperature scenario are then compared with the cumulative emissions implied in the NDCs submitted by the Latin American countries. Two main conclusions are obtained from the NDC analysis. First, the Latin American region, in 2030, will consume 67.8% of the emissions budget allocated by the MCJ until the end of the century. Second, this percentage could be reduced if, firstly, the conditional commitments within the NDC that require foreign aid are achieved, and, secondly, those countries that will consume their entire emissions budget by 2030 submit reviewed NDCs that increase the ambition of their mitigation commitments.