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The current state of practice sees public libraries, like all public institutions, enduring funding challenges within the dominant political-economic environment, which is shaped by the tenets of new public management and the neoliberal audit society. Libraries, feeling threatened and unsure about their future stability, seek new ways to demonstrate their value. However, they face institutional cultural constraints when attempting to introduce new assessment methods to meet this challenge. The new dynamics require them to go beyond output measures (counts). With research findings supported by survey and interview data from Ontario public libraries, and in agreement with the current literature on the subject, we propose a new model to address this phenomenon, serving two purposes: demonstrating a library’s present state of cultural readiness to introduce new systems of outcome assessment and charting a path toward creating a culture of meaningful evaluation.

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Purpose Over the past 80 years within a small, liberal arts (LA) Canadian university, significant paradigm shifts in students’ programmatic choices have occurred reflecting student preference for business-related programs versus traditional LA offerings. Grounded in strategic foresight (SF) practices, this paper aims to investigate drivers of declining traditional LA enrolment that are currently a boon for management studies, positing implications for long-term futures of the LA Academy. Design/methodology/approach This paper lays out foundational research exploring phenomena in the academy, including disruptive forces, and explores how SF can clarify and shape long-term choices. Seeking to answer what paradigm-shifting forces really mean for the future of the academy, a case study approach is used to interpret disruptions to a Canadian institution facing present challenges and an uncertain future. Scenarios are developed for the broader academy using an environmental understanding to better inform predictive actions envisioned in academic institutional future planning. Findings The outcome of this research, including four scenarios, will be used to better understand student and stakeholder motivations informing future academic planning. As institutional paradigms appear resistant to change, these foresight-inspired findings are valuable considerations for institutional administrators, particularly those at stressed organizations facing unsettling realities. Originality/value The case study identifies that for the LA Academy, myriad future unknowns exist, including its continued existence in today’s form. Institutions are generally unresponsive to the precursors of future change and are not systematically exploring future options.