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BackgroundThis paper reports the results of a repeat trial assessing the effectiveness of an online theory-based intervention to promote healthy lifestyle behaviours in new university students. The original trial found that the intervention reduced the number of smokers at 6-month follow-up compared with the control condition, but had non-significant effects on the other targeted health behaviours. However, the original trial suffered from low levels of engagement, which the repeat trial sought to rectify.MethodsThree weeks before staring university, all incoming undergraduate students at a large university in the UK were sent an email inviting them to participate in the study. After completing a baseline questionnaire, participants were randomly allocated to intervention or control conditions. The intervention consisted of a self-affirmation manipulation, health messages based on the theory of planned behaviour and implementation intention tasks. Participants were followed-up 1 and 6 months after starting university. The primary outcome measures were portions of fruit and vegetables consumed, physical activity levels, units of alcohol consumed and smoking status at 6-month follow-up.ResultsThe study recruited 2,621 students (intervention n = 1346, control n = 1275), of whom 1495 completed at least one follow-up (intervention n = 696, control n = 799). Intention-to-treat analyses indicated that the intervention had a non-significant effect on the primary outcomes, although the effect of the intervention on fruit and vegetable intake was significant in the per-protocol analyses. Secondary analyses revealed that the intervention had significant effects on having smoked at university (self-report) and on a biochemical marker of alcohol use.ConclusionsDespite successfully increasing levels of engagement, the intervention did not have a significant effect on the primary outcome measures. The relatively weak effects of the intervention, found in both the original and repeat trials, may be due to the focus on multiple versus single health behaviours. Future interventions targeting the health behaviour of new university students should therefore focus on single health behaviours.Trial registrationCurrent Controlled Trials ISRCTN07407344.

Abstract. This paper explores the potential for assessing the impacts of climate change upon flood frequency for the gauged, upland Wye catchment at Plynlimon, Wales, UK, while taking account of uncertainty in modelling rainfall-runoff processes under current conditions. A continuous simulation methodology which uses a stochastic rainfall model to drive the rainfall-runoff model TOPMODEL is utilised. Behavioural parameter sets for both the rainfall model and TOPMODEL are identified prior to the climate change runs using the Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) methodology. The "medium-high" UKCIP98 climate change scenario, obtained from the HadCM2 GCM simulations, is used as a starting point for a variety of different scenarios at the catchment scale. It is demonstrated that while the scenarios have only a small impact upon the likelihood weighted flood frequency uncertainty bounds in comparison with the current condition scenario, the risk of a given discharge as an element in the distribution of T year floods is changed. This underlines the need to account explicitly for uncertainty within hydrological modelling, especially in estimating the impacts of climate change. Keywords: Climate change; Floods; Frequency; TOPMODEL

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