Aim of study: To investigate the impact of Croatia’s accession to the EU on its agricultural sector, its market outlook and the EU’s key agricultural products up to 2030.Area of study: Croatia and European Union member statesMaterial and methods: Comparative approach was used in order to identify similarities of the changes that took place when other Central and Eastern European Countries (CEEC) acceded to the EU (results of previously conducted research) with the changes that happened in Croatia (historical data between 2010 and 2016). The second approach involved the AGMEMOD partial equilibrium model, which has been used as a comprehensive tool to model the complex outlook of Croatian agricultural markets. The results of the Croatian outlook were compared to the EU’s AGMEMOD outlook results in order to identify future trends in key agricultural market development (production, yield and net trade) and whether these newly established trends were comparable with EU trends.Main results: The changes that took place in the Croatian agricultural sector during and after the EU accession period are not significantly different from the trends and changes observed in other Central and Eastern EU member states. Similarities can especially be found in neighbouring CEEC countries (Hungary and Slovenia), which kept their producer prices close to EU levels prior to accession. Furthermore, the results indicate a similarity with CEEC trends in terms of the strengthening of crop production compared to livestock.Research highlights: Positive effects of EU integration on the Croatian agricultural sector took place after a few years of adjustment. Simulations of future market developments indicate many similarities between Croatia and EU 13 member states.

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Until now, no research has been carried out in Croatia into consumer preferences for a particular agricultural and food product by a choice experiment. Therefore, little data are available about Croatian consumers' preferences for social concerns (sustainability, biodiversity, rural development and animal welfare) with regard to the consumer choice and behavior favoring local pig breeds, in this case the Black Slavonian Pig breed. A survey was the method used to collect the data, and a survey questionnaire was used as an instrument. The survey was performed on a sample of n = 100 Croatian consumers surveyed online using a hypothetical choice experiment. The data were analyzed using the three logit models: a multinomial logit model (MNL), random parameter logit (RPL), and an error component random parameter logit model (RPL-EC) in order to examine the consumers’ heterogeneous preferences for fresh ham meat of the Black Slavonian Pig. The results suggest that the Croatian consumers appreciated a darker red fresh pork meat than the one obtained from the Black Slavonian Pig reared outdoors and semi-outdoor. They also prefer a fresh meat bearing a geographical information label, such as the continental Croatia and continental Croatia + PDO, to a fresh meat without a label.

Srednjoročna simulacija razvoja glavnih agrarno-političkih pokazatelja tržišta goveđega mesa u Hrvatskoj do 2030. godine izrađena je putem modela parcijalne ravnoteže AGMEMOD (AGricultural MEmber State MODeling). Rezultati modela do kraja simuliranoga razdoblja, uz pretpostavku nastavka postojećih mjera i instrumenata Zajedničke poljoprivredne politike, potvrđuju razvoj negativnih trendova u sklopu tržišta goveđega mesa uočenih pregledom povijesnih podataka. Do kraja simuliranoga razdoblja očekuje se smanjenje ukupnoga broja goveda za 8,63% i proizvodnje goveđega mesa za 24,46%, dok domaća potrošnja raste za 25,91%. Negativni proizvodni pokazatelji uz rastuću domaću potrošnju mogli bi uzrokovati rast uvoza goveđega mesa za 82,68%, uz stupanj samodostatnosti od 49% do 2030. godine. Cijena goveđega mesa od ulaska Hrvatske u Europsku uniju je stabilna, te se stabilan razvoj, uz blagi trend smanjenja, očekuje do kraja simuliranoga razdoblja.

Poljoprivredna proizvodnja u Hrvatskoj, općenito, ima važan značaj pri čemu biljna proizvodnja čini više od 50% ukupne poljoprivredne bruto proizvodnje. Najveću ulogu imaju žitarice i uljarice čija proizvodnja dominira u Panonskoj regiji s naglaskom na njen istočni dio. Cilj ovog rada je prikazati zasijane površine, ostvarenu proizvodnju i vanjskotrgovinsku razmjenu kukuruza, pšenice, ječma, soje, suncokreta i uljane repice tijekom petnaestogodišnjeg razdoblja (2003. - 2017.) u Hrvatskoj. Od ukupnih obradivih površina u analiziranom razdoblju žitarice (kukuruz, pšenica i ječam) zauzimaju oko 60% obradivih površina, a uljarice (soja, suncokret i uljana repica) oko 13%. Analizom podataka utvrđen je trend smanjenja površina pod žitaricama, naročito kukuruza, dok su uljarice pokazale trend rasta pri čemu su površine soje i uljane repice u zadnje tri godine gotovo udvostručene. Pristupanje Republike Hrvatske jedinstvenom tržištu Europske unije pozitivno je utjecalo na povećanje neto izvoza žitarica i uljarica. Prosječni volumen neto izvoza žitarica i uljarica za pet godina članstva u EU se više nego utrostručio u odnosu na prosjek predpristupnog perioda promatranog od 2003. do 2013. godine. Domaće cijene žitarica i uljarica prate trendove cijena na jedinstvenom tržištu uz stabilan razvoj nakon ulaska Hrvatske u Europsku uniju.