CO2 emissions are one of the main causes of the global problem of climate change, the solution to which requires the efforts of every country. One of the main polluters is the energy sector, which includes transport. Despite the seemingly small share of aviation in emissions, its role as a polluter and CO2 emitter cannot be underestimated due to calculated specific rate and a number of factors that were researched. The purpose of this study was to analyze the aviation share in the polluters’ structure and to study if Covid-19 restrictions influence on it, to investigate the share of CO2 emissions from air transport in Ukraine and to assess its impact, to forecast CO2 emissions in Ukraine by 2030 and to build scenarios of possible changes in the direction of decarbonization in the aviation industry. Analysis and synthesis, comparison, methods of pairwise regression and modelling scenarios were used for solving these tasks. The results show that the aviation industry could achieve the carbon reduction targets only by applying different types of carbon pricing with conducting the research and development in the sphere. The last significant improvement in aircraft design technologies and flight operations was achieved almost 60 years ago. Economic incentives at the international and local scales should be used to stimulate aviation manufacturers to invest significant money on R&D to find stable solutions to achieve decarbonization. Development of Ukrainian aviation industry should not stand aside from global trends and must meet modern challenges, including environmental issues. The created scenarios show solutions to achieve decarbonization goals that align with EU best practices.

The article conducted a study on approaches to the strategy of sustainable development of transport systems on the example of air transport in Ukraine. The shortcomings of the main tool of their strategy, namely the methods of classical forecasting, which limit its application, are revealed. The methods of forecasting based on expert judgment and classical methods of forecasting containing congenital pathology of errors are considered. Therefore, long-term factors and trends are identified, which remains a classic forecast, rather than building long-term forecasts of the national economy. To implement the stage of strategic planning of transport systems used the concept of sustainable development, which includes stages of identification through integrated assessment in the measurement of safety and strategy by defining goals, building the desired trajectory and decomposition of integrated indices through adaptive control methods of management theory. Three scenarios for the development of air transport in Ukraine have been developed: realistic - 3.8%; optimistic -7.0% and balanced - increase in gross value added (GVA) by 11.7% with scientific substantiation of quantitative values of indicators and key macroeconomic indicators, which guarantees the desired trajectory of sustainable development, and monitoring their implementation determines the effectiveness of public policies and actions.

The state and strategic scenarios to recover the sustainable development of air transport in Ukraine in the post-war period are studied. Research is fulfilled with the scientific justification of quantitative indicators and macro-indicators of maintaining the trajectory of sustainable development in the medium-term perspective. The starting point of strategizing is the concept of sustainable development in the safety dimension as a management construct that contains a general systemic view of the ways to transfer from the current state of the management object to the desired one and includes the stages of identification and strategizing. Identification involves an integral convolution with dynamic weighting coefficients and a formalized justification of the limits of safe existence. A new methodology is used for strategizing, which, unlike classical forecasting methods (the past determines the future), uses the principle "the future is determined by the trajectory into the future" and is based on the method of adaptive regulation from the management theory. According to the defined methodology, three strategic recovery scenarios were developed with the annual rates of growth of real aviation transport: realistic – 4.5%; optimistic – 7.2% and the scenario of entering the optimal zone of the EU countries – 10.4%. The resulting dynamics of components, indicators and macro indicators is, in fact, a strategic plan for the post-war recovery of the economy and entering the path of sustainable development. Threats are identified and institutional measures are proposed for airlines and national systems of airports and airfields, air navigation services, aviation industry, aviation education and science of Ukraine. The strategic orientations of the environmentalization of air transport of Ukraine in the post-war period and the strategic priorities of the recovery of the air transport infrastructure were formulated, and the necessity to pursue a course towards carbon neutrality was proved.

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The UN's global strategic document is the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. It is an action plan aimed at ensuring global sustainable development in economic, social and environmental directions, which ensures that no UN member country is left behind. The 17 Sustainable Development Goals in the 2030 Agenda can be used as guidelines for the coordinated development of UN member states. Every year, the number of countries that also connect aviation to a wider range of UN Sustainable Development Goals, such as 4, 8, 9, 11, 13, 14, 16 and 17, is increasing. At the same time, the achievement of these goals requires working out the theoretical foundations of strategic management of global civil aviation safety. The issue of aviation safety is one of the top priority challenges from the first day of flights. Years passed, technology, avionics, engines, navigation aids changed and developed, but the problem did not lose its relevance. ICAO's purpose: to ensure the safe and orderly development of all aspects of international civil aviation. ICAO develops Standards and Recommended Practices. They are set out in 19 Annexes to the Convention on International Civil Aviation. ICAO's new strategies are the basis for further sustainable development of global civil aviation.