Insurance and annuity products covering several lives require the modelling of the joint distribution of future lifetimes. In the interest of simplifying calculations, it is common in practice to assume that the future lifetimes among a group of people are independent. However, extensive research over the past decades suggests otherwise. In this paper, a copula approach is used to model the dependence between lifetimes within a married couple using data from a large Canadian insurance company. As a novelty, the age difference and the gender of the elder partner are introduced as an argument of the dependence parameter. Maximum likelihood techniques are thus implemented for the parameter estimation. Not only do the results make clear that the correlation decreases with age difference, but also the dependence between the lifetimes is higher when husband is older than wife. A goodness-of-fit procedure is applied in order to assess the validity of the model. Finally, considering several products available on the life insurance market, the paper concludes with practical illustrations.Keywords: Dependent lifetimes, Copula and dependence, Goodness-of-fit, Maximum likelihood estimator, Life insurance. the increased mortality of widowers, often called the broken heart syndrome. Many contributions have shown that there could be a significant difference between risk-related quantities, such as risk premiums, evaluated according to dependence or independence assumptions. Denuit and Cornet [9] have measured the effect of lifetime dependencies on the present value of a widow pension benefit. Based on the data collected in cemeteries, not only do their estimation results confirm that the mortality risk depends on the marital status, but also show that the amounts of premium are reduced approximately by 10 per cent compared to model which assumes independence. According to data from a large Canadian insurance company, Frees et al. [11] have demonstrated that there is a strong positive dependence between joint
In this paper we consider an extension to the aggregation of the FGM mixed Erlang risks, proposed by Cossette et al. (2013 Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 52, 560–572), in which we introduce the Sarmanov distribution to model the dependence structure. For our framework, we demonstrate that the aggregated risk belongs to the class of Erlang mixtures. Following results from S. C. K. Lee and X. S. Lin (2010 North American Actuarial Journal, 14(1) 107–130), G. E. Willmot and X. S. Lin (2011 Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry, 27(1) 8–22), analytical expressions of the contribution of each individual risk to the economic capital for the entire portfolio are derived under both the TVaR and the covariance capital allocation principle. By analysing the commonly used dependence measures, we also show that the dependence structure is wide and flexible. Numerical examples and simulation studies illustrate the tractability of our approach.
In this paper, we address the aggregation of dependent stop loss reinsurance risks where the dependence among the ceding insurer(s) risks is governed by the Sarmanov distribution and each individual risk belongs to the class of Erlang mixtures. We investigate the effects of the ceding insurer(s) risk dependencies on the reinsurer risk profile by deriving a closed formula for the distribution function of the aggregated stop loss reinsurance risk. Furthermore, diversification effects from aggregating reinsurance risks are examined by deriving a closed expression for the risk capital needed for the whole portfolio of the reinsurer and also the allocated risk capital for each business unit under the TVaR capital allocation principle. Moreover, given the risk capital that the reinsurer holds, we express the default probability of the reinsurer analytically. In case the reinsurer is in default, we determine analytical expressions for the amount of the aggregate reinsured unpaid losses and the unpaid losses of each reinsured line of business of the ceding insurer(s). These results are illustrated by numerical examples.
Consider two different portfolios which have claims triggered by the same events. Their corresponding collective model over a fixed time period is given in terms of individual claim sizes (X i , Y i ), i ≥ 1 and a claim counting random variable N . In this paper we are concerned with the joint distribution function F of the largest claim sizes (X N :N , Y N :N ). By allowing N to depend on some parameter, say θ, then F = F (θ) is for various choices of N a tractable parametric family of bivariate distribution functions. We investigate both distributional and extremal properties of (X N :N , Y N :N ). Furthermore, we present several applications of the implied parametric models to some data from the literature and a new data set from a Swiss insurance company 1 .
Calculation of an optimal tariff is a principal challenge for pricing actuaries. In this contribution we are concerned with the renewal insurance business discussing various mathematical aspects of calculation of an optimal renewal tariff. Our motivation comes from two important actuarial tasks, namely a) construction of an optimal renewal tariff subject to business and technical constraints, and b) determination of an optimal allocation of certain premium loadings. We consider both continuous and discrete optimisation and then present several algorithmic sub-optimal solutions. Additionally, we explore some simulation techniques. Several illustrative examples show both the complexity and the importance of the optimisation approach.
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