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Trade tensions, resource nationalism, and various other factors are increasing concerns regarding the supply reliability of nonfuel mineral commodities. This is especially the case for commodities required for new and emerging technologies ranging from electric vehicles to wind turbines. In this analysis, we use a conventional risk-modeling framework to develop and apply a new methodology for assessing the supply risk to the U.S. manufacturing sector. Specifically, supply risk is defined as the confluence of three factors: the likelihood of a foreign supply disruption, the dependency of U.S. manufacturers on foreign supplies, and the ability of U.S. manufacturers to withstand a supply disruption. The methodology is applied to 52 commodities for the decade spanning 2007-2016. The results indicate that a subset of 23 commodities, including cobalt, niobium, rare earth elements, and tungsten, pose the greatest supply risk. This supply risk is dynamic, shifting with changes in global market conditions.

The flows of nonfood and nonfuel materials through the economy have significant impact on our lives and the world around us. Growing populations and economies demand more goods, services, and infrastructure. Since the beginning of the 20th century, the types of materials consumed in the United States have significantly changed. In 1900, on a per-weight basis, almost half of the materials consumed were from renewable resources, such as wood, fibers, and agricultural products, the rest being derived from nonrenewable resources. By 1995, the consumption of renewable resources had declined dramatically, to only 8 percent of total consumption. During this century, the quantity of materials consumed has grown, from 161 million metric tons in 1900 to 2.8 billion metric tons by 1995, an equivalent of 10 metric tons per person per year. Of all the materials consumed during this century, more than half were consumed in the last 25 years. This paper examines the general historical shifts in materials consumption and presents an analysis of different measurements of materials use and the significance of their trends. CONTENTS Introduction 1 Trends in Consumption of Raw Materials 2 Consumption Trends in the United States,

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