In this paper we investigate the impact of rapid credit growth on ex ante credit risk. We present microeconometric evidence of the positive relationship between rapid credit growth and deterioration in lending portfolios: Loans granted during boom periods have higher probability of default than those granted during periods of slow credit growth. In addition, given their importance for macroprudential policy, we evaluate the effectiveness of the implementation of the countercyclical loan provisions. We find a negative relationship between the amplitude of credit cycles and this kind of macroprudential tool.

En este documento se describe el comportamiento reciente de algunos indicadores del sistema educativo colombiano tomando en consideración el efecto de la pandemia. Además, se evalúa empíricamente el impacto de un plan piloto de alternancia, ejecutado entre septiembre y diciembre de 2020, sobre los resultados de la prueba Saber 11 que se realizó en noviembre del mismo año. Los indicadores sobre educación básica y media revelan que la pandemia causó una mayor demanda por servicios de educación en colegios oficiales, aumentó las tasas de deserción y repitencia escolar y profundizó las brechas en el rendimiento académico. En educación superior se mantiene la tendencia descendente en el número de estudiantes matriculados, así como las brechas en el rendimiento académico, al considerar diferentes factores socioeconómicos de los estudiantes. Las estimaciones del ejercicio empírico, que evalúa la efectividad del plan de alternancia, indican que los estudiantes que participaron en el experimento obtuvieron en promedio mejores resultados en la prueba Saber 11 con respecto a los estudiantes que permanecieron en el esquema no presencial.

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The history of economic recessions has shown that every deep downturn has been accompanied by disruptions in the financial sector. Paradoxically, up until the financial world crisis of 2007-2009, little attention was given to macroeconomic and financial interdependence. In this paper, a study is conducted on the relationship between financial and real business cycles for a sample of thirty-three countries in the frequency domain. Specifically, the features of the interdependence of credit and output cycles are analysed and Granger-type causality tests are carried out in the frequency domain. The main findings of the study indicate that the likelihood of cycle interdependence is highest when considering medium and long-term frequencies, and that Granger causality runs in both directions.

During the last two decades, domestic government bond markets have developed significantly in emerging economies. Although the financial sector has benefited accordingly, volatility in this market also has posed potential risks in terms of financial stability. This paper uses directed acyclic graphs and structural vector-autoregressive models to evaluate the impact of different shocks on both the public debt market and financial stability. Results suggest that inflation, the policy interest rate and indicators of risk perception are the variables that most affect the slope of the yield curve. In turn, when the slope increases, there is a positive contemporary effect on bank risk indicators.