We present a Bayesian analysis of the epistemology of analogue experiments with particular reference to Hawking radiation. First, we prove that such experiments can be confirmatory in Bayesian terms based upon appeal to 'universality arguments'. Second, we provide a formal model for the scaling behaviour of the confirmation measure for multiple distinct realisations of the analogue system and isolate a generic saturation feature. Finally, we demonstrate that different potential analogue realisations could provide different levels of confirmation. Our results provide a basis both to formalise the epistemic value of analogue experiments that have been conducted and to advise scientists as to the respective epistemic value of future analogue experiments. * email: Dardashti@uni-wuppertal.de †

In this paper we argue for the existence of analogue simulation as a novel form of scientific inference with the potential to be confirmatory. This notion is distinct from the modes of analogical reasoning detailed in the literature, and draws inspiration from fluid dynamical 'dumb hole' analogues to gravitational black holes. For that case, which is considered in detail, we defend the claim that the phenomena of gravitational Hawking radiation could be confirmed in the case that its counterpart is detected within experiments conducted on diverse realisations of the analogue model. A prospectus is given for further potential cases of analogue simulation in contemporary science.

We offer a new proposal for cosmic singularity resolution based upon a quantum cosmology with a unitary bounce. This proposal is illustrated via a novel quantization of a mini-superspace model in which there can be superpositions of the cosmological constant. This possibility leads to a finite, bouncing unitary cosmology. Whereas the usual Wheeler-DeWitt cosmology generically displays pathological behaviour in terms of non-finite expectation values and non-unitary dynamics, the finiteness and unitarity of our model are formally guaranteed. For classically singular models with a massless scalar field and cosmological constant, we show that well-behaved quantum observables can be constructed and generic solutions to the universal Schrödinger equation are singularity-free. Generic solutions of our model displays novel features including: i) superpositions of values of the cosmological constant; ii) universal effective physics due to non-trivial self-adjoint extensions of the Hamiltonian; and iii) bound 'Efimov universe' states for negative cosmological constant. The last feature provides a new platform for quantum simulation of the early universe. A companion paper provides detailed interpretation and analysis of particular cosmological solutions that display a cosmic bounce due to quantum gravitational effects, a well-defined FLRW limit far from the bounce, and a semi-classical turnaround point in the dynamics of the scalar field which resembles an effective inflationary epoch.

A physically consistent semi-classical treatment of black holes requires universality arguments to deal with the 'trans-Planckian' problem where quantum spacetime effects appear to be amplified such that they undermine the entire semi-classical modelling framework. We evaluate three families of such arguments in comparison with Wilsonian renormalization group universality arguments found in the context of condensed matter physics.Our analysis is framed by the crucial distinction between robustness and universality. Particular emphasis is placed on the quality whereby the various arguments are underpinned by 'integrated' notions of robustness and universality. Whereas the principal strength of Wilsonian universality arguments can be understood in terms of the presence of such integration, the principal weakness of all three universality arguments for Hawking radiation is its absence.

The Deutsch-Wallace-Everett programme is conceptually incoherent since its viability rests upon a notion of decoherence that conflicts with its own fundamental precepts in two respects. These problems are not alleviated by invoking the notion of emergent or robust structure, and are argued to be significant enough to cast doubt upon the viability of the entire neo-Everettian enterprise as it now stands.