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Various factors affecting the construction progress are regarded as bottlenecks giving rise to the project duration overrun. The contractor should combine the project schedule with the plan in order to reduce the uncertainty of the project activities. The present research describes the method derived from the theory of constraints (TOC) attempts to enhance the relationship among activities, to revise and further reduce the uncertainty of construction activities to improve the reliability of project progress. The elements of drum, buffer and rope (DBR) in TOC are added to PERT network schedule; through the identification of schedule in the bottleneck process, the implementation plan of the bottleneck is obtained. By measuring buffer time and calculating network schedule buffer time as well as feeding time, the relationship among activities and uncertainty of duration are also improved. To illustrate the impact of DBR applications on improving project schedule reliability, a case of hydropower station as an example is illustrated to show enhanced reliability of scheduling. As compared to program evaluation and review technique network (PERT) simulation, the simulation results showed that the uncertainty of construction progress could be reduced if the DBR are well cooperated mutually.

Credit risk is one of the three components making up financial risk. Under the New Basel Capital Accord, default risk has been listed as the most important factor for credit risk among all elements that affect risk of credit. Banks in China currently leave large quantities of cash idle due to difficulty in loan recovery. This essay first analyzes the distributional features of variables' cross-section data concerning the default rate. Based on credible data, this research then undertakes the choice of an appropriate default prediction model. The Binary Logistic Regression Model is adopted here to build the default rate model of business credit risk and to analyze the risk information generated, in hopes of helping banks find the correct loaning strategies.

System reliability distribution theory is mainly used in electronic system engineering and logistics management. With a view to the vital function and influence that reliability factors have made in business management, the author gives the methods to definite the concept of the reliability of management system in enterprise and to calculate its index. Besides, the author discusses the application of reliability allocation theory in management system and establishes the optimized mathematical model for marketing distribution about enterprise production. Finally, this article gives a calculation example by using the optimized mathematical model.