<p>La seguridad hídrica debe ser el objetivo estratégico de la política del agua en México. Es respecto de este principio normativo que debe evaluarse la situación actual de los recursos hídricos, en calidad y cantidad, así como de la gestión del agua en práctica. En este texto se elabora un diagnóstico general de la seguridad hídrica en México, así como de los retos que enfrenta ahora y en el futuro cercano. Se analiza la disponibilidad y escasez con un enfoque territorial, así como la condición de los acuíferos, la calidad del agua superficial y subterránea y los usos del agua. Se abordan los principales desafíos para la seguridad hídrica y las tendencias en las fuerzas modeladoras más relevantes. Para atender la problemática descrita, se proponen acciones específicas y, como conclusión general, la necesidad de una reforma del agua en México.</p>

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In the last decades there have been some deficits in water deliveries that Mexico must make to the United States under the Water Treaty between the two countries. Population growth and the effects of climate change make possible foresee that the difficulties will increase in the future. This text analyzes the observed changes in rainfall in the basin, and a dynamic model is developed to estimate the effects of climate change on the water balance of the Conchos river basin, which contributes 87% of the amount of water established as Mexicans commitments in the Treaty. The results of three scenarios are shown and the effects on water availability in the basin are exposed. A sensitivity analysis is presented, with the Montecarlo method, regarding

Maximum temperature trends and the corresponding heat wave thresholds in the northwestern city of Mexicali, Mexico, were analyzed using historical data from the site. We found that there seems to be an upward trend in temperature in the past decades, along with an increased number of days reaching maximum temperatures considered as heat waves. Despite the difficulty of establishing heat wave parameters, the trends of the analyzed field data clearly show their presence, mainly during July and August. This trend is also supported by the analysis of the number of admissions and casualties registered in hospitals in the city of Mexicali. This work is a warning on the frequency and duration of a very important climate change-related effect capable of jeopardizing the health of the population in the region and requiring more attention by decision makers and stakeholders. It also helps to document observed climate trends, as requested by the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change.

Improving water resource management at a global scale is critical at this time. The risks to which bodies of water are currently exposed, whether due to climate change or anthropogenic conditions, affect water availability and quality in basins around the world. Nevertheless, water management has been revealed as a complex problem. In this light, one of the most promising methodologies is building dynamic simulation models, which may include the largest possible number of variables, not just hydrological. In this way, we may gain a broader perspective on all the natural and social dimensions encompassed in basins and, thus, improve decision making for the benefit of the population. This systematic review seeks to report the most representative results from several authors who have developed dynamic models applied to the management of water resources. Herein, special emphasis is placed on water resource management applied to basin models, decision making, and public policies, as well as on the modeling tools used and on model validation.