The trade liberalisation under AFTA schemes commencing since 1 January 2003 would result in the more opened market in the ASEAN region and increased competition among countries in the region. The present paper aims to conduct an inter ASEAN comparative analysis on the export growth of agricultural products as well as effect of product composition, market distribution and competitiveness on export of agricultural products to the ASEAN region, using time-series data and Constant Market Share approach. The main findings of the analysis are as follows : (1) The Indonesia's export growth to the ASEAN region in the 1997-1999 period was the highest one among the ASEAN countries, even higher than the world export to the same region, while in the 1999-2001 period it decreased and became slower compared than Thailand, Filipina and world; (2) Composition of the Indonesia's export product was the best one among the ASEAN country, even though it weakened in the 1999-2001 from the previous period; (3) Market distribution of the Indonesia's export in the 1997-1999 period was worse than Singapore's only, but in the following period it weakened and became worse compared to Singapore and Vietnam; and (4) Competitiveness of the Indonesia's export in the 1997-1999 period was the best one among the ASEAN countries, but weakened in the subsequent period and became worse compared to the Philippines and Thailand. It is suggested that in the future, Indonesia needs to pay more attentions on the selection of correct product composition and country destination so as to win in the increasing competition with other ASEAN countries and even non ASEAN countries. Key words : AFTA Trade Liberalisation, Constant Market Share Approach, Product Composition Effect, Market Distribution Effect, Competition Effect ABSTRAKLiberalisasi perdagangan AFTA yang berlaku sejak 1 Januari 2003 akan menyebabkan makin terbukanya pasar di kawasan ASEAN dan makin tajamnya persaingan antar negara di kawasan ini. Tulisan ini bertujuan untuk melakukan analisis komparasi antar negara ASEAN yang menyangkut pertumbuhan ekspor produk pertanian serta efek komposisi produk, distribusi pasar dan daya saing terhadap ekspor produk pertanian ke kawasan ASEAN dengan menggunakan data sekunder deret waktu dan metode analisis Constant Market Share. Kesimpulan utama hasil analisis ini adalah sebagai berikut : (1) Pertumbuhan ekspor Indonesia ke kawasan ASEAN selama periode 1997-1999 adalah yang tertinggi di antara negara-negara ASEAN, bahkan lebih tinggi daripada pertumbuhan ekspor dunia ke kawasan yang sama, sedangkan pada periode 1999-2001 menurun dan lebih rendah dibanding Thailand, Filipina dan dunia; (2)

<strong>English</strong><br />There are three major problems encountered by Indonesia in relation with sugar agribusiness. First, the declining sugar productivity, due among others to low on farm technology adoption and sugar factory efficiency. Second, the increasing sugar resulted from among others; the international prices of sugar that do not represent the true production efficiency because it is sold below its production cost; ad-hoc border measure policies; and many illegal sugar imports. Third, the unstable domestic prices of sugar because of inefficient distribution system. To overcome these problems, the future sugar industry development needs to be formulated into short-run development program (3 years), medium-run development program (10 years) and long-run development program (20 years). The short-run development program aims to rehabilitate the sugar factories in Java Island to enable them to produce crystal sugar with “cost of good sold” being competitive with the international prices of sugar. The medium-run development program aims to develop the sugar factories outside Java through utilizing dry land’s formerly allocated to transmigration now being no longer competitive for food crops development. The long-run development program aims to switch the ownership of sugar factory from the state enterprise to sugar cane farmers, and development of sugar cane based industry, such as ethanol, alcohol, etc. Moreover, it is also necessary to revitalize research and development activities through providing more sufficient funds.<br /><br /><br /><strong>Indonesian</strong><br />Ada tiga permasalahan utama yang dihadapi Indonesia berkaitan dengan agribisnis pergulaan. Pertama, produktivitas gula yang cenderung terus turun yang disebabkan antara lain karena penerapan teknologi on farm dan efisiensi pabrik gula yang rendah. Kedua, impor gula yang semakin meningkat. Hal ini disebabkan antara lain, karena harga gula di pasar internasional tidak menggambarkan tingkat efisiensi produksi yang sebenarnya, karena dijual di bawah ongkos produksinya; kebijakan border measure yang sifatnya ad-hoc; dan banyaknya impor gula illegal. Ketiga, harga gula di pasar domestik tidak stabil yang disebabkan oleh sistem distribusi yang kurang efisien. Untuk mengatasi permasalahan tersebut, maka pengembangan industri gula di masa yang akan datang perlu disusun dalam Program Jangka Pendek (3 tahun), Program Jangka Menengah (10 tahun) dan Program Jangka Panjang (20 tahun). Program jangka pendek ditujukan untuk melakukan rehabilitasi PG di Jawa, sehingga mampu menghasilkan gula hablur dengan harga pokok yang dapat bersaing dengan harga gula di pasar internasional. Program jangka menengah ditujukan untuk pengembangan PG di Luar Jawa, dengan memanfaatkan lahan kering eks transmigrasi yang kurang kompetitif bagi pengembangan tanaman pangan. Program jangka panjang ditujukan untuk pengalihan pemilikan PG BUMN kepada petani tebu, serta pengembangan industri berbasis tebu, seperti ethanol, alkohol, dan lain-lain. Selain itu, perlu juga dilakukan revitalisasi kegiatan research and development, dengan memberikan dukungan dana yang lebih memadai.

The Indonesian rice economy has been increasingly squeezed since the agreements on agriculture under the WTO arrangements came into effect by 1 January 1995. This was attributed to excessive quantity of rice imports, especially since the economic crisis in mid 1997. The decreased world prices have severely affected the domestic prices that brought about the Indonesian rice to become increasingly less competitive. To deal with this crucial problem, the Indonesian government launched combined protection policies, including tariff and nontariff measures. Since 2000, the tariff rate is Rp 430/kg, and since 2003 the nontariff measure involves import arrangement, control and restriction. In relation to this problem, the objective of the present paper is to estimate the effects of the tariff and nontariff policies on the Indonesian rice economy both at the aggregate and farm levels. Using a partial equilibrium model, this research found that the protection policies have significantly reduced import quantity and, at the same time, significantly increased the domestic price, domestic production, producer's surplus and farmer's income. Elimination of one or both policies would bring back the Indonesian rice industry into bankruptcy. It is suggested, therefore, that: (1) The Indonesian government needs to retain the existing combined protection policies; (2) Indonesia together with other countries has to make more pressures on other (exporting) countries so as to reduce their export subsidies and domestic supports that would improve world prices; and (3) Always attempting improvement in domestic rice farming, processing and marketing so as to improve competitiveness.

During the last decade, the increasing intensity of anti -tobacco campaign underpinned by health consideration that has been reinforced by the ratified Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC), the reduced government support to tobacco production, and the increasing community's awareness on the importance of healthy life, has been threatening the world and the Indonesian tobacco economy. The world tobacco economy is expected to be slowing down and severely affects the Indonesia's tobacco economy. In this connection, this paper is aimed at analyzing the current situation and the roles of tobacco and cigarette industry sectors in the Indonesian economy. Important results of the analysis are as follows : (i) the tobacco production during the 2000 -2006 period was decreased by 5.98% per annum; (ii) the per capita cigarette consumption tended to increase with the increased per capita income; (iii) the tobacco and the cigarette sectors shared about 7% of the government domestic revenues, but more depleting rather than generating foreign exchanges; (iv) the tobacco and cigarette industry sectors have small share in the creation of output value, value added and employment, but have relatively high output multiplier, particularly the tobacco sector; and (v) the tobacco sector was able to pull its upstream sectors and push its downstream sectors to develop, while the cigarette sector was able only to push its downstream sector. It is suggested, therefore, that: (i) the future development of tobacco and cigarette sectors needs to consider the balance between economic and health aspects; and (ii) the nicotine and tar contained in the cigarettes needs to be reduced while exploring alternative economically feasible of non -cigarette uses of tobacco. Key words : tobacco sector,cigarette industry, input output, Indonesia ABSTRAKSelama dasawarsa terakhir, meluasnya kampanye anti tembakau karena pertimbangan kesehatan yang diperkuat den gan telah diratifikasinya Konvensi Kerangka Pengendalian Tembakau, ber kurangnya dukungan pemerintah untuk pengembangan ekonomi tembakau serta meningkatnya kesadaran masyarakat akan pentingnya hidup sehat, maka ancaman terhadap ekonomi tembakau dunia dan In donesia mulai terasa. Dikhawatirkan ekonomi tembakau dunia akan terus melesu dan berdampak pada

Sapi bali adalah jenis sapi yang dominan dikembangkan di berbagai wilayah di Indonesia, terutama di Indonesia Timur, namun perkembangannya dipengaruhi oleh dinamika pemasarannya. Tulisan ini bertujuan untuk melihat dinamika pemasaran sapi bali di Indonesia timur berdasarkan data dan informasi yang berasal dari hasil pengamatan penulis langsung di lapangan, berbagai publikasi dan data statistik. Hasil kajian menunjukkan bahwa: (i) Ada hubungan positif antara tingkat pendapatan per kapita dan konsumsi daging sapi per kapita dan jumlah konsumsi; (ii) Preferensi masyarakat konsumen di wilayah Jakarta dan sekitarnya sudah bergeser dari daging sapi lokal (sapi bali, dll) ke daging asal ternak sapi dan daging sapi impor; (iii) Kemampuan wilayah timur Indonesia dalam memasok ternak sapi untuk pemotongan lokal dan perdagangan antar provinsi, sudah menurun, utamanya NTT; (iv) Volume impor sapi bakalan dan daging sapi secara nasional terus meningkat; (v) Ternak sapi di wilayah timur Indonesia dipasarkan secara lokal dan antar pulau antara lain ke Jakarta dan Kalimantan dengan rantai pasok dari peternak hingga konsumen akhir yang tidak terlalu panjang; (vi) Dewasa ini, daerah pemasaran ternak sapi hidup dari wilayah NTT dan NTB diperluas ke Kalimantan karena harga jualnya lebih menarik dibanding ke Jakarta; dan (vii) Permasalahan krusial yang dihadapi antara lain adalah alat angkutan ternak dan pelabuhan bongkar-muat ternak masih belum kondusif, pemotongan ternak sapi betina produktif makin banyak, dan kondisi rumah pemotongan hewan (RPH) jauh dari standar higienis. Disarankan agar pemerintah menyediakan fasilitas pelabuhan bongkar-muat yang lebih kondusif, meningkatkan pengawasan terhadap pemotongan ternak sapi betina produktif, pemberian insentif yang memadai bagi peternak untuk melakukan tunda-jual ternak sapinya yang sedang bunting, dan pengendalian impor ternak sapi bakalan dan daging sampai batas tertentu sehingga harga ternak sapi dalam negeri tidak merugikan peternak.