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In questo lavoro si propone un'analisi delle caratteristiche occupazionali della po-polazione straniera in Italia rispetto ai cittadini nazionali, confrontando i mesi di epidemia COVID-19 con i precedenti. L'analisi si avvale dei microdati della Forze di Lavoro ISTAT fino al secondo trimestre 2020. La banca dati è arricchita dalla Indagine Campionaria sulle Professioni INAPP che permette di includere nell'analisi le caratteristiche professionali, tra cui la prossimità con i colleghi, il con-tatto con il pubblico, l'importanza di mansioni di cura e l'esposizione a malattie con le quali è costruito un indicatore sintetico di rischio di contagio da SARS-Cov-2 sul posto di lavoro. Con un modello di probabilità lineare si stimano gli effetti del COVID-19 sulla perdita dell'occupazione e sulla sospensione dell'attività lavorati-va. I risultati mostrano per gli stranieri una maggiore incidenza della perdita di oc-cupazione e una minore sospensione dell'attività nei mesi della pandemia, con ef-fetti maggiori per le donne.

Long-term non-employment (which is not long-term unemployment) has been almost neglected in the academic literature, long term here implying up to 15-25 years of absence from the labour market, let alone full and definitive exit. This study takes the lead from a previous paper (2017) in which the magnitude of long term nonemployment (LTNE) and its duration are estimated from administrative databases of Italy, Germany and Spain (Contini B, et al., IZA discussion papers, no.11167, 2017).In all three countries long-term nonemployment appears to be a lifetime disease for many workers who drop out of the (official) labour market and never return, left unsheltered from the welfare institutions. The main task of this work is an analytical exploration of the factors leading to LTNE development in Italy, estimated at almost 1.3 million male individuals (about as many as the officially unemployed), average duration exceeding 12 years. An econometric exploration indicates that it is often more profitable for employers to hire new unexperienced young workers in place of confirming individuals already onthe-job, leading to excessive turnover, long-term non-employment and waste of human capital. There are strong policy implications of this result as the EU Commission has for many years advocated low wages for new entrants and high contract flexibility as major instruments to promote youth employment.

After estimating the impact of wage subsidies and EPL reforms on open ended employment, we single out which macro characteristics are responsible for the variability of the estimated effects at the regional level. We find that the impact of incentives is higher where GDP and VA per head are higher, and the informal economy is limited. Instead, we do not find any heterogeneity and in most cases any impact for the EPL component. We conclude that regions with a stronger economy benefitted more from subsidies, which might exacerbate territorial inequality.

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