Here are presented the results of the analysis of daily activity patterns obtained from the data of camera traps for five large mammals (elk Alces alces, wild boar Sus scrofa, brown bear Ursus arctos, grey wolf Canis lupus, Eurasian lynx Lynx lynx) and three medium ones (European badger Meles meles, raccoon dog Nyctereutes procyonoides, mountain hare Lepus timidus) for the territory of the Central Forest Nature Reserve, Valdai Upland, Russia. Data were collected in the period 2010-2017 and the trap effort was 30 158 camera days from 21 locations. Most of the mammals surveyed showed activity at night and twilight hours (71% of the pictures). The hare was most active among all and dominant at night. In many respects it is similar to the activity of a raccoon dog, which type can be defined as nocturnal too. Unlike a hare, a raccoon dog has a weak peak in the daytime and less activity in the night. Badgers movements are confined to the twilight and nighttime. The share of nocturnal activity of large ungulates such as elk and wild boar was approximately the same and amounted to about 45% of all registrations. The wild boar is slightly more active during the day and in the evening and is not active at all in the morning. The elk is active in the morning, and in the daytime and to a lesser extent in the evening. The lynx and the bear have similar cathemeral activity patterns: almost half of all their meetings occurred at daylight hours and only slightly -less than 40% -at night. The brown bear had the maximum number of registrations in the daytime among all the studied species. Despite the fact that the main object of lynx feeding in the reserve is the hare, there was no high degree of overlap between them ( = 0.75). In the group of large carnivores, the wolf was noticeably distinguished, more than half of its registrations were at night, and a third -on daytime. Daily activities of the wolf and its main prey elk showed a large overlap ( = 0.89). The seasonal variations of daily activity of all species were also shown. According to the results of factor analysis, each of the studied species was divided into one of three separate groups. The first group included species with a tendency to nocturnal activity (wolf, elk, hare, badger, and raccoon dog), the second group -cathemeral animals (bear and lynx). In the third group was only the wild boar, whose activity was associated with the evening hours. This is the first long-term continuous camera trap survey in Russia and it provides detailed daily activity patterns for multiple large and medium-sized sympatric mammals.

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Most habitat suitability models and resource selection functions (RSFs) use indirect variables and habitat surrogates. However, it is known that in order to adequately reflect the habitat requirements of a species, it is necessary to use proximal resource variables. Direct predictors should be used to construct a real RSF that reflects the real influence of main resources on species habitat use. In this work, we model the spatial distribution of the main food resources of brown bear Ursus arctos L. within the natural and human-modified landscapes of the Central Forest State Nature Reserve (CFNR) for further RSF construction. Food-probability models were built for Apiaceae spp. (Angelica sylvestris L., Aegopodium podagraria L., Chaerophyllum aromaticum L.), Populus tremula L., Vaccinium myrtillus L., V. microcarpum (Turcz. ex Rupr.) Schmalh., V. oxycoccos L., Corylus avellana L., Sorbus aucuparia L., Malus domestica Borkh., anthills, xylobiont insects, social wasps and Alces alces L. using the MaxEnt algorithm. For model evaluation, we used spatial block cross-validation and held apart fully independent data. The true skill statistic (TSS) estimates ranged from 0.34 to 0.95. Distribution of Apiaceae forbs was associated with areas having rich phytomass and moist conditions on southeastern slopes. Populus tremula preferred areas with phytomass abundance on elevated sites. Vaccinium myrtillus was confined to wet boreal spruce forests. V. microcarpum and V. oxycoccos were associated with raised bogs in depressions of the terrain. Corylus avellana and Sorbus aucuparia preferred mixed forests on elevated sites. Distribution of Malus domestica was associated with meadows with dry soils in places of abandoned cultural landscapes. Anthills were common on the dry soils of meadows, and the periphery of forest areas with high illumination and low percent cover of tree canopy. Moose preferred riverine flood meadows rich in herbaceous vegetation and sparse mixed forests in spring and early summer. The territory of the human-modified CFNR buffer zone was shown to contain a higher variety of food resources than the strictly protected CFNR core area.

Meteorological series and phenological data in the framework of our environmental monitoring in the South taiga Central Forest Reserve were analyzed. During 1984– 2017, the average annual air temperature was 4.63±0.41°C, and the average annual rainfall was 2.14±0.12 mm/day. For eight of the 43 (19%) climatic parameters, reliable linear trends of variability were found: an increase of air temperature in July, August, September, and December; an increase of soil temperature in December; an increase of precipitation in November and December; and a decrease of precipitation in September. Three causes of their directed long-term changes were revealed, namely: a shift of the winter timing, violation of the annual dynamics of climatic parameters and a change in the precipitation type during a longer autumn – snow to be replaced by rain. Of the 11 species of vascular plants, the statistical significance of the long-term displacement of phenological dates was proven for Anemone nemorosa: the longer the autumn and softer the beginning of the winter, the earlier the onset of its flowering. Two classification types of vascular plants in identifying interspecific synchrony in the phenological events variation were considered. Variability components of phenological phenomena occurrence was estimated: the share of long-term trends of the shift in phenological dates timing due to changes in reserve climatic system is from 20 to 68% of the total sign dispersion; interannual climatic fluctuations explain 5–34% of its variability; and the proportion of variability under unaccounted factors influence is high (21–64%). Species with a high proportion of their long-term variability components (Anemone nemorosa: more than 60%) are recommended to use as indicators of climate change under the conditions of the study area.

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