The features found in our study are typical of pneumococcal carriage in developing countries. We believe that results from longitudinal modeling of carriage based on these extensive data can have wide geographic application.

Our findings are consistent with the hypothesis that serotype-independent protective immunity is stimulated in young children by previous pneumococcal carriage and reduces the rate of new colonization. This immunity has the potential to modulate the development of carriage, irrespective of the colonizing serotype, and to do so starting early in infancy.

The burden of pneumococcal carriage is largest in developing countries from which, however, detailed studies on pneumococcal transmission are missing. In this study we followed nasopharyngeal carriage in Bangladeshi infants (n=99) from birth, with 2-week sampling intervals until age 4 months, and monthly thereafter until age 1 year, and also their family members at the same intervals. We assessed the dependence of pneumococcal acquisition rates on age, serotype, serotype-specific exposure (i.e. transmission) and current state of carriage (yes/no). A statistical model of pneumococcal transmission, taking into account incompletely observed data, was applied to estimate rates of acquisition and clearance for a large number of serotypes at the same time. Serotypes that were common in the study population were more often acquired from the community than rarer serotypes. However, when conditioning on serotype-specific exposure within the family, transmission rates were similar between different serotypes. Exposure within families signified more than tenfold increase in the rate of acquisition.

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