The developed method for forecasting the survivability indicators of the executive element of a special-purpose system based on analytical-stochastic simulation of a conflict situation is presented. The purpose of the method was to solve the problem of preserving and rational use of the resource of the executive elements to achieve the desired effect of the functioning of special-purpose systems. The method is sensitive to the description of the patterns of changes in the survivability and efficiency indicators of the system. It is supposed to compare the predicted value of the survivability indicator with its criterion value and forecast the time when the system loses the ability to effectively perform tasks. The survivability indicator is the mathematical expectation of the number of executive elements of a special-purpose system, which retained their ability to perform tasks as intended during a conflict situation. Based on the results of the study, the values of the time characteristics of a conflict situation were obtained, in particular, the duration of the corresponding states of the executive element: preparation, waiting, implementation. Graph-analytical simulation provides a solution to the problem of forecasting the time when the loss of executive elements leads to the system’s inability to effectively perform tasks. Checking of the adequacy of the method showed that the confidence interval of the discrepancy between the calculation results of other methods with a confidence level of 0.9 does not exceed 0.095, and no contradictions between the methods were found. The proposed method provides an increase in the efficiency of determining the corresponding indicators within 8–11 % and reliability by 22 %. The possibility to determine the required reserve and the time for introducing executive elements into the system can provide a justification for how they are used to maintain the required level of efficiency of a special-purpose system.

The current pace of development of information technology has created the preconditions for the emergence of a wide range of tools for providing educational services using distance learning technologies. This is confirmed by the intensification of the use of distance learning systems in the conditions of sanitary and epidemiological restrictions and the need for acute cost savings. The existing scientific and methodological apparatus for studying the quality of functioning of distance learning systems is mostly based on approaches to separate assessment of the effectiveness of their elements and the relevant quality indicators. This limits the ability to take into account important factors in the decision-making process and requires comprehensive consideration of the contributions of relevant subsystems to the functioning of the distance learning system. In order to solve this problem, the article presents a comprehensive methodology for assessing the effectiveness of distance learning system, based on methods of probability theory and hierarchy analysis and describes the patterns of influence on the effectiveness of distance learning system of importance and contributions of its subsystems. Comparative analysis of the data obtained by monitoring and forecasting performance indicators based on the proposed method, shows an increase in the reliability of the assessment within 15-18%, which in contrast to the existing reduction of standard deviation of performance indicators by an average of 26% and ensures the adequacy of the results within certain assumptions and hypotheses. In such conditions, the choice of an appropriate option for the construction of the DN system is ensured by the reliability of the forecast of the results of its operation in the range of 82-85%, which is high enough to make appropriate decisions. The value of this study lies in the possibility of using the tested scientific and methodological apparatus in forecasting the outcome of the system and saving material, financial and human resources in the process of implementing the relevant recommendations in practice. This fact makes it possible to eliminate limitations in the practice of building distance learning systems and creates a new opportunity to cover a wider range of factors that affect the quality of operation.The application of this technique makes it possible to predict the results of the joint operation of the relevant subsystems of the distance learning system, taking into account their contribution to the overall result.

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The purpose of improving a method is to devise a tool for resolving contradictions in the practice of conflict events related to increasing the survivability and effectiveness of participation in a conflict event. A method for forecasting the survivability indicators of a special-purpose system based on the method of analytical-stochastic modeling of a conflict event was chosen as the basis for improvement. The improved method is intended to find a compromise between the need to increase the duration of participation in the conflict and minimize the time of being at risk of loss of ability to function. The use of the improved method, unlike the existing ones, provides an assessment of the impact of maneuver on the effectiveness of the implementation of tasks and the survivability of SPS. The method implies justifying the techniques for the executive elements to maneuver in order to create favorable conditions and effectively perform tasks in a conflict event. The method involves the procedure for the formation of initial data; determining the maneuvering intensity of executive elements; comparing the parameters for expedient (rational) and implemented maneuvering techniques; the generalization of the research results. The accepted indicators of the effectiveness and survivability of a special-purpose system in a conflict event are the mathematical expectations of the number of destructive influences and the number of preserved executive elements as a function of the intensity of maneuvering. The criteria defined for assessing the maneuvering techniques are the greatest values of the increase in efficiency and survivability with the change in the intensity of maneuvering and taking the favorable position by an executive element in a conflict event. The specified method has helped investigate the peculiarities of changing performance and survivability indicators dependent on the intensity of maneuvering and determine the criteria signs for selecting maneuvering techniques. Based on the signs of informativeness and the nature of the mutual influence of the relevant indicators, the advantage of the method is 30 % while the objectivity of taking into consideration significant factors increases by 15 %. Practice needs to predict the consequences of processes of conflicting nature on the grounds of the effectiveness and survivability of its participants