OBJECTIVE To distinguish among predictors of seroconversion, progression to multiple autoantibodies and from multiple autoantibodies to type 1 diabetes in young children. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS Genetically high-risk newborns (n = 8,502) were followed for a median of 11.2 years (interquartile range 9.3–12.6); 835 (9.8%) developed islet autoantibodies and 283 (3.3%) were diagnosed with type 1 diabetes. Predictors were examined using Cox proportional hazards models. RESULTS Predictors of seroconversion and progression differed, depending on the type of first appearing autoantibody. Male sex, Finnish residence, having a sibling with type 1 diabetes, the HLA DR4 allele, probiotic use before age 28 days, and single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) rs689_A (INS) predicted seroconversion to IAA-first (having islet autoantibody to insulin as the first appearing autoantibody). Increased weight at 12 months and SNPs rs12708716_G (CLEC16A) and rs2292239_T (ERBB3) predicted GADA-first (autoantibody to GAD as the first appearing). For those having a father with type 1 diabetes, the SNPs rs2476601_A (PTPN22) and rs3184504_T (SH2B3) predicted both. Younger age at seroconversion predicted progression from single to multiple autoantibodies as well as progression to diabetes, except for those presenting with GADA-first. Family history of type 1 diabetes and the HLA DR4 allele predicted progression to multiple autoantibodies but not diabetes. Sex did not predict progression to multiple autoantibodies, but males progressed more slowly than females from multiple autoantibodies to diabetes. SKAP2 and MIR3681HG SNPs are newly reported to be significantly associated with progression from multiple autoantibodies to type 1 diabetes. CONCLUSIONS Predictors of IAA-first versus GADA-first autoimmunity differ from each other and from the predictors of progression to diabetes.

OBJECTIVE To examine whether iron intake and genetically determined iron overload interact in predisposing to the development of childhood islet autoimmunity (IA) and type 1 diabetes (T1D). RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS In The Environmental Determinants of Diabetes in the Young (TEDDY) study, 7,770 genetically high-risk children were followed from birth until the development of IA and progression to T1D. Exposures included energy-adjusted iron intake in the first 3 years of life and a genetic risk score (GRS) for increased circulating iron. RESULTS We found a U-shaped association between iron intake and risk of GAD antibody as the first autoantibody. In children with GRS ≥2 iron risk alleles, high iron intake was associated with an increased risk of IA, with insulin as first autoantibody (adjusted hazard ratio 1.71 [95% CI 1.14; 2.58]) compared with moderate iron intake. CONCLUSIONS Iron intake may alter the risk of IA in children with high-risk HLA haplogenotypes.

OBJECTIVE This study investigated physical activity and its association with the development of islet autoimmunity and type 1 diabetes in genetically at-risk children aged 5–15 years. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS As part of the longitudinal Environmental Determinants of Diabetes in the Young (TEDDY) study, annual assessment of activity using accelerometry was conducted from age 5 years. Time-to-event analyses using Cox proportional hazard models were used to assess the association between time spent in moderate to vigorous physical activity per day and the appearance of one or several autoantibodies and progression to type 1 diabetes in three risk groups: 1) 3,869 islet autoantibody (IA)-negative children, of whom 157 became single IA positive; 2) 302 single IA–positive children, of whom 73 became multiple-IA positive; and 3) 294 multiple IA–positive children, of whom 148 developed type 1 diabetes. RESULTS No significant association was found in risk group 1 or risk group 2. A significant association was seen in risk group 3 (hazard ratio 0.920 [95% CI 0.856, 0.988] per 10-min increase; P = 0.021), particularly when glutamate decarboxylase autoantibody was the first autoantibody (hazard ratio 0.883 [95% CI 0.783, 0.996] per 10-min increase; P = 0.043). CONCLUSIONS More daily minutes spent in moderate to vigorous physical activity was associated with a reduced risk of progression to type 1 diabetes in children aged 5–15 years who had developed multiple IAs.