Predicting the patient's clinical outcome from the historical electronic medical records (EMR) is a fundamental research problem in medical informatics. Most deep learning-based solutions for EMR analysis concentrate on learning the clinical visit embedding and exploring the relations between visits. Although those works have shown superior performances in healthcare prediction, they fail to explore the personal characteristics during the clinical visits thoroughly. Moreover, existing works usually assume that the more recent record weights more in the prediction, but this assumption is not suitable for all conditions. In this paper, we propose ConCare to handle the irregular EMR data and extract feature interrelationship to perform individualized healthcare prediction. Our solution can embed the feature sequences separately by modeling the time-aware distribution. ConCare further improves the multi-head self-attention via the cross-head decorrelation, so that the inter-dependencies among dynamic features and static baseline information can be effectively captured to form the personal health context. Experimental results on two real-world EMR datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of ConCare. The medical findings extracted by ConCare are also empirically confirmed by human experts and medical literature.

Deep learning-based health status representation learning and clinical prediction have raised much research interest in recent years. Existing models have shown superior performance, but there are still several major issues that have not been fully taken into consideration. First, the historical variation pattern of the biomarker in diverse time scales plays a vital role in indicating the health status, but it has not been explicitly extracted by existing works. Second, key factors that strongly indicate the health risk are different among patients. It is still challenging to adaptively make use of the features for patients in diverse conditions. Third, using prediction models as the black box will limit the reliability in clinical practice. However, none of the existing works can provide satisfying interpretability and meanwhile achieve high prediction performance. In this work, we develop a general health status representation learning model, named AdaCare. It can capture the long and short-term variations of biomarkers as clinical features to depict the health status in multiple time scales. It also models the correlation between clinical features to enhance the ones which strongly indicate the health status and thus can maintain a state-of-the-art performance in terms of prediction accuracy while providing qualitative interpretability. We conduct a health risk prediction experiment on two real-world datasets. Experiment results indicate that AdaCare outperforms state-of-the-art approaches and provides effective interpretability, which is verifiable by clinical experts.

Due to the characteristics of COVID-19, the epidemic develops rapidly and overwhelms health service systems worldwide. Many patients suffer from life-threatening systemic problems and need to be carefully monitored in ICUs. An intelligent prognosis can help physicians take an early intervention, prevent adverse outcomes, and optimize the medical resource allocation, which is urgently needed, especially in this ongoing global pandemic crisis. However, in the early stage of the epidemic outbreak, the data available for analysis is limited due to the lack of effective diagnostic mechanisms, the rarity of the cases, and privacy concerns. In this paper, we propose a distilled transfer learning framework, DistCare, which leverages the existing publicly available online Electronic Medical Records to enhance the prognosis for inpatients with emerging infectious diseases. It learns to embed the COVID-19related medical features based on massive existing EMR data. The transferred parameters are further trained to imitate the teacher model's representation based on distillation, which embeds the health status more comprehensively on the source dataset. We conduct Length-of-Stay prediction experiments for patients in ICUs on real-world COVID-19 datasets. The experiment results indicate that our proposed model consistently outperforms competitive baseline methods. In order to further verify the scalability of DistCare to deal with different clinical tasks on different EMR datasets, we conduct an additional mortality prediction experiment on End-Stage Renal Disease datasets. The extensive experiments demonstrate that DistCare can benefit the prognosis for emerging pandemics and other diseases with limited EMR.