We address inconsistent procedures and metrics used to evaluate photochemical model performance, recommend a specific set of statistical metrics, and develop updated quantitative performance benchmarks for those metrics. We promote quantitatively consistent evaluations across different applications, scales, models, inputs, and configurations, thereby (1) improving the user's ability to quantitatively place results in context and guide model improvements, and (2) better informing users, regulators, and stakeholders of model uncertainties and weaknesses prior to using results for policy assessments. While we primarily address U.S. modeling and regulatory settings, these recommendations are relevant to any such applications of state-of-the-science photochemical models.

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Errors in chemical transport models (CTMs) interpreting the relation between space-retrieved tropospheric column densities of nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) and emissions of nitrogen oxides (NO_x) have important consequences on the inverse modeling. They are however difficult to quantify due to lack of adequate in situ measurements, particularly over China and other developing countries. This study proposes an alternate approach for model evaluation over East China, by analyzing the sensitivity of modeled NO₂ columns to errors in meteorological and chemical parameters/processes important to the nitrogen abundance. As a demonstration, it evaluates the nested version of GEOS-Chem driven by the GEOS-5 meteorology and the INTEX-B anthropogenic emissions and used with retrievals from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) to constrain emissions of NO_x. The CTM has been used extensively for such applications. Errors are examined for a comprehensive set of meteorological and chemical parameters using measurements and/or uncertainty analysis based on current knowledge. Results are exploited then for sensitivity simulations perturbing the respective parameters, as the basis of the following post-model linearized and localized first-order modification. It is found that the model meteorology likely contains errors of various magnitudes in cloud optical depth, air temperature, water vapor, boundary layer height and many other parameters. Model errors also exist in gaseous and heterogeneous reactions, aerosol optical properties and emissions of non-nitrogen species affecting the nitrogen chemistry. Modifications accounting for quantified errors in 10 selected parameters increase the NO₂ columns in most areas with an average positive impact of 18% in July and 8% in January, the most important factor being modified uptake of the hydroperoxyl radical (HO₂) on aerosols. This suggests a possible systematic model bias such that the top-down emissions will be overestimated by the same magnitude if the model is used for emission inversion without corrections. The modifications however cannot eliminate the large model underestimates in cities and other extremely polluted areas (particularly in the north) as compared to satellite retrievals, likely pointing to underestimates of the a priori emission inventory in these places with important implications for understanding of atmospheric chemistry and air quality. Note that these modifications are simplified and should be interpreted with caution for error apportionment

Abstract. This paper compares measurements of gaseous and particulate emissions from a wide range of biomassburning plumes intercepted by the NASA DC-8 research aircraft during the three phases of the ARCTAS-2008 experiment: ARCTAS-A, based out of Fairbanks, Alaska, USA (3 April to 19 April 2008); ARCTAS-B based out of Cold Lake, Alberta, Canada (29 June to 13 July 2008); and ARCTAS-CARB, based out of Palmdale, California, USA (18 June to 24 June 2008). Approximately 500 smoke plumes from biomass burning emissions that varied in age from minutes to days were segregated by fire source region and urban emission influences. The normalized excess mixing ratios (NEMR) of gaseous (carbon dioxide, acetonitrile, hydrogen cyanide, toluene, benzene, methane, oxides of nitrogen and ozone) and fine aerosol particulate components (nitrate, sulfate, ammonium, chloride, organic aerosols and water soluble organic carbon) of these plumes were compared. A detailed statistical analysis of the different plume categories for different gaseous and aerosol species is presented in this paper.Correspondence to: A. Hecobian (arsineh@gatech.edu)The comparison of NEMR values showed that CH 4 concentrations were higher in air-masses that were influenced by urban emissions. Fresh biomass burning plumes mixed with urban emissions showed a higher degree of oxidative processing in comparison with fresh biomass burning only plumes. This was evident in higher concentrations of inorganic aerosol components such as sulfate, nitrate and ammonium, but not reflected in the organic components. Lower NO x NEMRs combined with high sulfate, nitrate and ammonium NEMRs in aerosols of plumes subject to long-range transport, when comparing all plume categories, provided evidence of advanced processing of these plumes.