The support of the armed forces is a necessary condition for a revolution to succeed. The 2011 Arab uprisings support this contention. The military’s role is examined in the six Arab states where significant bloodshed had taken place: Bahrain, Egypt, Libya, Syria, Tunisia, and Yemen. They can be grouped into three categories defined by how the regular military responded to the revolt. In Tunisia and Egypt the soldiers backed the revolution, in Libya and Yemen they split, and in Syria and Bahrain they turned their guns against the demonstrators. These different stances by the armed forces largely explain the different outcomes of the revolutions.

No abstract

This article is a comparative analysis of state-socialist policies towards the East European Gypsies (Roma). I make two related arguments. First, the Gypsy policies of East European states evolved differently and resulted in considerable variation. Second, notwithstanding the state-socialist social control policies, a measure of independent Romani activism did emerge laying the groundwork for post-socialist Gypsy mobilization.

No abstract

We know that a revolution’s success largely depends on the army’s response to it. But can we predict the military’s reaction to an uprising? This book argues that it is possible to make a highly educated guess—and in some cases even a confident prediction—about the generals’ response to a domestic revolt if we know enough about the army, the state it is supposed to serve, the society in which it exists, and the external environment that affects its actions. Through concise case studies of modern uprisings in Iran, China, Eastern Europe, Burma, and the Arab world, the book looks at the reasons for and the logic behind the variety of choices soldiers ultimately make. The book offers tools—in the form of questions to be asked and answered—that enable analysts to provide the most informed assessment possible regarding an army’s likely response to a revolution and, ultimately, the probable fate of the revolution itself. It examines such factors as the military’s internal cohesion, the regime’s treatment of its armed forces, and the size, composition, and nature of the demonstrations. This book explains how generals decide to support or suppress domestic uprisings.