Development of methodical provisions regarding the substantiation of the combat structure of forces for activities in the airspace

The developed method for forecasting the survivability indicators of the executive element of a special-purpose system based on analytical-stochastic simulation of a conflict situation is presented. The purpose of the method was to solve the problem of preserving and rational use of the resource of the executive elements to achieve the desired effect of the functioning of special-purpose systems. The method is sensitive to the description of the patterns of changes in the survivability and efficiency indicators of the system. It is supposed to compare the predicted value of the survivability indicator with its criterion value and forecast the time when the system loses the ability to effectively perform tasks. The survivability indicator is the mathematical expectation of the number of executive elements of a special-purpose system, which retained their ability to perform tasks as intended during a conflict situation. Based on the results of the study, the values of the time characteristics of a conflict situation were obtained, in particular, the duration of the corresponding states of the executive element: preparation, waiting, implementation. Graph-analytical simulation provides a solution to the problem of forecasting the time when the loss of executive elements leads to the system’s inability to effectively perform tasks. Checking of the adequacy of the method showed that the confidence interval of the discrepancy between the calculation results of other methods with a confidence level of 0.9 does not exceed 0.095, and no contradictions between the methods were found. The proposed method provides an increase in the efficiency of determining the corresponding indicators within 8–11 % and reliability by 22 %. The possibility to determine the required reserve and the time for introducing executive elements into the system can provide a justification for how they are used to maintain the required level of efficiency of a special-purpose system.

Section: Discussion Of the Results Of Studying The Survivability Of The Executive Element Of A Special-purpose Systemmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussion Of the Results Of Studying The Survivability Of The Executive Element Of A Special-purpose Systemmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Literature Review and Problem Statementmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Development of the survivability indicators forecasting method of the special-purpose system executive element based on analytical and stochastic simulation of a conflict situation

Hohoniants

Chopa

Kilmeninov

et al. 2021

“…In [3][4][5][6], attention is paid to the search for rational solutions to the tasks of covering objects from the destructive influence of the enemy and forcing it to lose the initiative.…”

Section: Literature Review and Problem Statementmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In [5], the rule for assessing the maneuvering capabilities of conflict participants has not been formed. In [6], the system is considered as a set of elements deployed in space to perform conflict tasks, without taking into consideration the dynamics of changing the system structure and the corresponding consequences.…”

Section: Literature Review and Problem Statementmentioning

confidence: 99%

Improving a method for determining the maneuvering intensity of the executive element of a special-purpose system

Hohoniants

Репіло

Tytarenko

et al. 2021

The purpose of improving a method is to devise a tool for resolving contradictions in the practice of conflict events related to increasing the survivability and effectiveness of participation in a conflict event. A method for forecasting the survivability indicators of a special-purpose system based on the method of analytical-stochastic modeling of a conflict event was chosen as the basis for improvement. The improved method is intended to find a compromise between the need to increase the duration of participation in the conflict and minimize the time of being at risk of loss of ability to function. The use of the improved method, unlike the existing ones, provides an assessment of the impact of maneuver on the effectiveness of the implementation of tasks and the survivability of SPS. The method implies justifying the techniques for the executive elements to maneuver in order to create favorable conditions and effectively perform tasks in a conflict event. The method involves the procedure for the formation of initial data; determining the maneuvering intensity of executive elements; comparing the parameters for expedient (rational) and implemented maneuvering techniques; the generalization of the research results. The accepted indicators of the effectiveness and survivability of a special-purpose system in a conflict event are the mathematical expectations of the number of destructive influences and the number of preserved executive elements as a function of the intensity of maneuvering. The criteria defined for assessing the maneuvering techniques are the greatest values of the increase in efficiency and survivability with the change in the intensity of maneuvering and taking the favorable position by an executive element in a conflict event. The specified method has helped investigate the peculiarities of changing performance and survivability indicators dependent on the intensity of maneuvering and determine the criteria signs for selecting maneuvering techniques. Based on the signs of informativeness and the nature of the mutual influence of the relevant indicators, the advantage of the method is 30 % while the objectivity of taking into consideration significant factors increases by 15 %. Practice needs to predict the consequences of processes of conflicting nature on the grounds of the effectiveness and survivability of its participants

Determining the deterrence forces composition to prevent the unleashing of enemy aggression based on the principles of system analysis

Koval

Zahorka

Shchypanskyi

et al. 2023

The task to determine the composition of forces to deter the enemy from starting aggression, that is, to prevent the hot phase of a military conflict, refers to poorly structured problems in the presence of significant uncertainty. This leads to the application of the methodology of system analysis in solving the task. The set of deterrence forces to defeat the enemy is considered as a complex military system, which is the object of this study. To determine the composition of the enemy's deterrence forces from unleashing armed aggression, this paper reports a devised methodology. The procedure criterion is the effectiveness of deterrence, which is determined by the required ratio of the combat potentials of the aviation of the opposing sides at the end of hostilities. According to the methodology of system analysis, the procedure is based on the formation of options for the composition of enemy forces and the composition of deterrence forces, assessing the effectiveness of their use during hostilities. The effectiveness of the use of forces of opposing parties is assessed by using the method of iterations and methods of queuing theory. Based on the results of the effectiveness assessment, the selection of options for the composition of the deterrence forces is carried out, for which the condition for ensuring the necessary ratio of the combat potentials of the aviation of the parties at the end of hostilities is met. The rational version of the composition of the deterrence forces from those selected is determined by using the taxonomy method, which has made it possible to solve the problem under study. The rational option determines the combat potentials of the components of the deterrence forces, which correspond to the number of units in their composition. The above methodology should be used by state and military authorities when planning the creation of enemy deterrence forces against unleashing armed aggression. The application of the procedure is shown in an illustrative example