Effect of Solar Activity on the Polar-night Jet Oscillation in the Northern and Southern Hemisphere Winter.

Kuroda, Yoji; Kodera, Kunihiko

doi:10.2151/jmsj.80.973

Cited by 67 publications

(68 citation statements)

References 30 publications

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“…In accord with the mechanism postulated by Kuroda and Kodera (2002) and Kodera and Kuroda (2002), the enhancement of 5 the horizontal temperature gradient under increased solar cycle activity strengthens and cools the NH stratospheric vortex in autumn. The simulated response extends to the troposphere in November.…”

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 65%

“…In particular, Kuroda and Kodera (2002) reported the development of a positive zonal wind anomaly in the subtropical upper stratosphere for solar maximum during autumn in each hemisphere that is consistent with the strengthened horizontal temperature gradient. In that study, the positive Northern Hemisphere (NH) zonal wind response developed and propagated poleward and downward during the course of early winter, accompanied by a relative cooling of the polar stratosphere.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 56%

“…As discussed in the introduction, Kuroda and Kodera (2002) and Kodera and Kuroda (2002) postulated that the initial solar-25 induced enhancement of the horizontal temperature gradient in autumn and the associated strengthening of the subtropical upper stratospheric jet initiate a chain of feedbacks between planetary waves and the mean flow that modulates the evolution of the polar vortex, as well as the large-scale meridional circulation, throughout the dynamically active season. A mechanism consistent with that was later shown to operate in a number of GCM/CCM modelling studies (e.g.…”

Section: Mechanismmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The most frequently invoked mechanism to explain how the direct solar-induced response in the upper stratosphere can propagate down to the lower atmosphere and affect tropospheric climate is that first proposed by Kuroda and Kodera (2002) Atmos. Chem.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Simulating the atmospheric response to the 11-year solar cycle forcing with the UM-UKCA model: the role of detection method and natural variability

Bednarz¹,

Maycock²,

Telford³

et al. 2018

Preprint

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The 11-year solar cycle forcing is recognised as a potentially important atmospheric forcing; however, there remain uncertainties in characterising the effects of the solar variability on the atmosphere from observations and models. Here we 15 present the first detailed assessment of the atmospheric response to the 11-year solar cycle in the UM-UKCA chemistryclimate model using an ensemble of integrations over the recent past. Comparison of the model simulations is made with observations and reanalysis. Importantly, in contrast to the majority of previous studies of the solar cycle impacts, we pay particular attention to the role of detection method by comparing the results diagnosed using both a composite and a multiple linear regression method. We show that stratospheric solar responses diagnosed using both techniques largely agree with 20 each other within the associated uncertainties; however, the results show that apparently different signals can be identified by the methods in the troposphere and in the tropical lower stratosphere. Lastly, we focus on the role of internal atmospheric variability on the detection of the 11-year solar responses by comparing the results diagnosed from individual model ensemble members (as opposed to those diagnosed from the full ensemble). We show overall agreement between the ensemble members in the tropical and mid-latitude mid-stratosphere-to-lower-mesosphere, but larger apparent differences at 25 NH high latitudes during the dynamically active season. Our results highlight the need for long data sets for confident detection of solar cycle impacts in the atmosphere, as well as for more research on possible interdependence of the solar cycle forcing with other atmospheric forcings and processes (e.g. QBO, ENSO… etc.).Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi

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Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 65%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 56%

Section: Mechanismmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Simulating the atmospheric response to the 11-year solar cycle forcing with the UM-UKCA model: the role of detection method and natural variability

Bednarz¹,

Maycock²,

Telford³

et al. 2018

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…In addition, note that the temperatures in southern Greenland in the GISS-ER show cooler areas. Earlier studies using the GISS-ER simulation and observations have shown that the NAO/AO-like temperature pattern is related to changes in large-scale dynamic atmospheric circulation (Lean and Rind, 2008) and polar night jets resulting primarily from solar spectral (UV) changes Kuroda and Kodera, 2002). Composite differences in the sea level pressure (SLP) in the GISS-ER model indicate significant pressure increases over both the Atlantic and Pacific sectors at mid-latitudes and decreases over the majority of the northern high latitudes (Fig.…”

Section: Climate Model Experimentsmentioning

confidence: 99%

On the origin of multidecadal to centennial Greenland temperature anomalies over the past 800 yr

et al. 2013

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The surface temperature of the Greenland ice sheet is among the most important climate variables for assessing how climate change may impact human societies due to its association with sea level rise. However, the causes of multidecadal-to-centennial temperature changes in Greenland temperatures are not well understood, largely owing to short observational records. To examine these, we calculated the Greenland temperature anomalies (GTA_[G-NH]) over the past 800 yr by subtracting the standardized northern hemispheric (NH) temperature from the standardized Greenland temperature. This decomposes the Greenland temperature variation into background climate (NH); polar amplification; and regional variability (GTA_[G-NH]). The central Greenland polar amplification factor as expressed by the variance ratio Greenland/NH is 2.6 over the past 161 yr, and 3.3–4.2 over the past 800 yr. The GTA_[G-NH] explains 31–35% of the variation of Greenland temperature in the multidecadal-to-centennial time scale over the past 800 yr. We found that the GTA_[G-NH] has been influenced by solar-induced changes in atmospheric circulation patterns such as those produced by the North Atlantic Oscillation/Arctic Oscillation (NAO/AO). Climate modeling and proxy temperature records indicate that the anomaly is also likely linked to solar-paced changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and associated changes in northward oceanic heat transport

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Possible impacts of a future grand solar minimum on climate: Stratospheric and global circulation changes

et al. 2015

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It has been suggested that the Sun may evolve into a period of lower activity over the 21st century. This study examines the potential climate impacts of the onset of an extreme “Maunder Minimum‐like” grand solar minimum using a comprehensive global climate model. Over the second half of the 21st century, the scenario assumes a decrease in total solar irradiance of 0.12% compared to a reference Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 experiment. The decrease in solar irradiance cools the stratopause (∼1 hPa) in the annual and global mean by 1.2 K. The impact on global mean near‐surface temperature is small (∼−0.1 K), but larger changes in regional climate occur during the stratospheric dynamically active seasons. In Northern Hemisphere wintertime, there is a weakening of the stratospheric westerly jet by up to ∼3–4 m s−1, with the largest changes occurring in January–February. This is accompanied by a deepening of the Aleutian Low at the surface and an increase in blocking over Northern Europe and the North Pacific. There is also an equatorward shift in the Southern Hemisphere midlatitude eddy‐driven jet in austral spring. The occurrence of an amplified regional response during winter and spring suggests a contribution from a top‐down pathway for solar‐climate coupling; this is tested using an experiment in which ultraviolet (200–320 nm) radiation is decreased in isolation of other changes. The results show that a large decline in solar activity over the 21st century could have important impacts on the stratosphere and regional surface climate.

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Effect of Solar Activity on the Polar-night Jet Oscillation in the Northern and Southern Hemisphere Winter.

Cited by 67 publications

References 30 publications

Simulating the atmospheric response to the 11-year solar cycle forcing with the UM-UKCA model: the role of detection method and natural variability

Simulating the atmospheric response to the 11-year solar cycle forcing with the UM-UKCA model: the role of detection method and natural variability

On the origin of multidecadal to centennial Greenland temperature anomalies over the past 800 yr

Possible impacts of a future grand solar minimum on climate: Stratospheric and global circulation changes

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