Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis in Mrio Modelling; Some Empirical Results With Regard to the Dutch Carbon Footprint

Wilting, Harry C.

doi:10.1080/09535314.2011.628302

Cited by 65 publications

(61 citation statements)

References 17 publications

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“…Turkish Agriculture) and aggregation of results reduces these uncertainties Wilting, 2012). Therefore we do not report estimates of individual sector level impacts.…”

Section: =̂mentioning

confidence: 99%

Global inequities and emissions in Western European textiles and clothing consumption

Mair

Druckman

Jackson

2016

Journal of Cleaner Production

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Rising demand for cheaper textiles and clothing in Western Europe is well documented, as are changes in the Textiles and Clothing industry's globalised production structure. We apply a sub-systems global multi-regional input-output accounting framework to examine the sustainability implications of meeting Western European demand for textiles and clothing goods between 1995 and 2009. Our framework estimates environmental and socio-economic impacts of consumption in a consistent manner and shows where these occur both geographically and in the value chain. The results demonstrate that Western European textiles and clothing consumption remains dependent on low-cost labour from Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRIC), principally in the Textiles and Clothing and Agricultural sectors. Conversely, we show that the wage rate for BRIC workers in the global value chains serving Western European textiles and clothing consumption has risen over time but remains low relative to the wage rate paid to Western European workers. Likewise, we find that profits are increasingly generated within BRIC and that they are now at comparable levels to those generated in Western Europe. We find a slight overall decrease in the amount of carbon emitted in the production of textiles and clothing goods for Western Europe between 1995 and 2009. However, the trend is not linear and the importance of different underlying drivers varies over the timeseries. We conclude by discussing the implications of these results for a more sustainable future for Western European textiles and clothing consumption.

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“…Turkish Agriculture) and aggregation of results reduces these uncertainties Wilting, 2012). Therefore we do not report estimates of individual sector level impacts.…”

Section: =̂mentioning

confidence: 99%

Global inequities and emissions in Western European textiles and clothing consumption

Mair

Druckman

Jackson

2016

Journal of Cleaner Production

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…It is also possible to perform a more comprehensive uncertainty analysis using Monte Carlo analysis (Bullard and Sebald, 1988). In general, when applied to consumption-based emission calculations, these studies generally find that the uncertainty is only slightly larger than the uncertainty in production-based estimates (Yamakawa and Peters, 2009;Lenzen et al, 2010;Wilting, 2012). However, these results have to be put into perspective.…”

Section: Parametric Uncertaintymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In addition, since it is also found that the most uncertain data are usually small and have only little impact on the results (Lenzen et al, 2010;Jensen, 1980;Jensen and West, 1980), then it may be more effective to perform targeted sensitivity analysis (Wilting, 2012). Nevertheless, the available literature suggests the variation in economic data may not be that important for consumption-based estimates at the national level, but differences may persist at the sector level (Lenzen et al, 2010;Lenzen, 2011;Wilting, 2012). Table 5, Table 6, and Table 7 show the differences in consumption-based estimates when only one factor is varied at a time.…”

Section: G P Peters Et Al: a Synthesis Of Carbon In International mentioning

confidence: 99%

A synthesis of carbon in international trade

2012

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Abstract. In a globalised world, the transfer of carbon between regions, either physically or embodied in production, represents a substantial fraction of global carbon emissions. The resulting emission transfers are important for balancing regional carbon budgets and for understanding the drivers of emissions. In this paper we synthesise current understanding in two parts: (1) CO 2 emissions embodied in goods and services that are produced in one country but consumed in others, and (2) carbon physically present in fossil fuels, petroleum-derived products, harvested wood products, crops, and livestock products. We describe the key differences between studies and provide a consistent set of estimates using the same definitions, modelling framework, and consistent data. We find the largest trade flows of carbon in international trade in 2004 were fossil fuels (2673 MtC, 37 % of global emissions), CO 2 embodied in traded goods and services (1661 MtC, 22 % of global emissions), crops (522 MtC, 31 % of total harvested crop carbon), petroleum-based products (183 MtC, 50 % of their total production), harvested wood products (149 MtC, 40 % of total roundwood extraction), and livestock products (28 MtC, 22 % of total livestock carbon). We find that for embodied CO 2 emissions, estimates from independent studies are robust, and that differences between individual studies are not a reflection of the uncertainty in consumption-based estimates, but rather these differences result from the use of different production-based emissions input data and different definitions for allocating emissions to international trade. After adjusting for these issues, results across independent studies converge to give less uncertainty than previously assumed. For physical carbon flows there are relatively few studies to be synthesised, but differences between existing studies are due to the method of allocating to international trade, with some studies using "apparent consumption" as opposed to "final consumption". While results across studies are sufficiently robust to be used in further applications, more research is needed to understand differences and to harmonise definitions for particular applications.

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“…Empirical assessments revealed the level of differences in carbon footprints calculated with the various MRIO models (Arto et al, 2014;Inomata and Owen, 2014;Owen et al, 2014aOwen et al, , 2014bWilting, 2012). However, in order to inform policy development, findings derived from different MRIO models should have similar overall messages.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Structural production layer decomposition: a new method to measure differences between MRIO databases for footprint assessments

Wieland

Giljum

Brückner

et al. 2017

Economic Systems Research

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Structural production layer decomposition: a new method to measure differences between MRIO databases for footprint assessments ABSTRACTRecent empirical assessments revealed that footprint indicators calculated with various multi-regional input-output (MRIO) databases deliver deviating results. In this paper, we propose a new method, called structural production layer decomposition (SPLD), which complements existing structural decomposition approaches. SPLD enables differentiating between effects stemming from specific parts in the technology matrix, e.g. trade blocks vs. domestic blocks, while still allowing to link the various effects to the total region footprint. Using the carbon footprint of the EU-28 in 2011 as an example, we analyse the differences between EXIOBASE, Eora, GTAP and WIOD. Identical environmental data are used across all MRIO databases. In all model comparisons, variations in domestic blocks have a more significant impact on the carbon footprint than variations in trade blocks. The results provide a wealth of information for MRIO developers and are relevant for policy makers designing climate policy measures targeted to specific stages along product supply chains. ARTICLE HISTORY

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Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis in Mrio Modelling; Some Empirical Results With Regard to the Dutch Carbon Footprint

Cited by 65 publications

References 17 publications

Global inequities and emissions in Western European textiles and clothing consumption

Global inequities and emissions in Western European textiles and clothing consumption

A synthesis of carbon in international trade

Structural production layer decomposition: a new method to measure differences between MRIO databases for footprint assessments

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