Simulation of potential range expansion of oak disease caused byPhytophthora cinnamomiunder climate change

Abstract

This study examines the effects of climate warming on one of the most widely distributed and destructive forest pathogens, Phytophthora cinnamomi. In Europe, the winter survival of the pathogen is the dominant cue for the development of the disease it causes to oaks, especially Quercus robur and Q. rubra. The potential pathogen and disease geographic ranges were compared in France between two reference periods, 1968-1998 and 2070-2099. Simulations were obtained by combining a physiologically based approach predicting the pathogen winter survival in relation to microhabitat temperature (in the phloem of infected trees) with a regionalized climatic scenario derived from a global circulation model. Positive anomalies in winter temperatures calculated with this scenario were in the range 0.5-5 1C between the periods 2070-2099 and the 1968-1998, according to sites and months. As a consequence, higher annual rates of P. cinnamomi survival were predicted, resulting in a potential range expansion of the disease of one to a few hundred kilometers eastward from the Atlantic coast within one century. Based on this example, the study emphasizes the need of a better understanding of the impacts of global change on the biotic constraint constituted by plant pathogens.

Range and severity of a plant disease increased by global warming

“…Changing weather (e.g. temperature, rainfall) can induce severe plant disease epidemics (Coakley et al 1999;Chakraborty 2005), which threaten food security if they affect staple crops (Luo et al 1995;Chakraborty et al 2000;Anderson et al 2004) and can damage landscapes if they affect amenity species (Brasier & Scott 1994;Bergot et al 2004). Severity of human, animal and plant disease epidemics is greatly affected by climatic factors, especially temperature and rainfall (Wint et al 2002;Fitt et al 2006a; Thomson et al 2006;Bosch et al 2007).…”

Risk analysis of climate change on coffee nematodes and leaf miner in Brazil

“…The GCM made available by the IPCC are more adequate, since seasonal and spatial alterations are predicted. Only few studies used GCM to evaluate the impacts on pests and diseases (Bergot et al, 2004;Salinari et al, 2006;Ghini et al, 2007). The models, however, have a number of limitations.…”

Robust cropping systems to tackle pests under climate change. A review

“…Under climate change, this pathogen was reported to increase the instability and vulnerability of forest ecosystems by a shift toward central Europe (Jung 2009). Increasing temperatures were predicted to boost potential range expansion of P. cinnamomi along the western coast of Europe up to a few hundred kilometers eastward from the Atlantic coast within one century (Bergot et al 2004). Likewise, Phytophthora ramorum, a pathogen of yet unknown origin, and not reported in Europe until the late 1990s, has rapidly established itself as a major threat to a range of plant species here.…”