The Decline of the African National Congress in South Africa’s 2016 Municipal Elections

Justesen, Mogens Kamp; Schulz-Herzenberg, Collette

doi:10.1080/03057070.2018.1539376

Cited by 15 publications

(10 citation statements)

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“…We show that credible and timely information suggesting localized corruption does affect the electoral fortunes of governing parties, independent from the underlying governance conditions themselves. While we do not assess the role of racial voting patterns (Ferree 2011), we find clear evidence of performance-based accountability (Justesen and Schulz-Herzenberg 2018).…”

Section: Discussioncontrasting

confidence: 61%

Audits for Accountability: Evidence from Municipal By-Elections in South Africa

Berliner¹,

Wehner²

2019

Preprint

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Theories of retrospective accountability assume that voters punish poor governance and reward improvements, yet empirical evidence remains mixed. We extend this research to a new context, assessing the impact of audits on electoral outcomes in South African municipalities. Our novel identification strategy focuses on by-elections triggered by deaths in office of local councilors and compares those taking place before and after audit results are announced each year. We find that timely audit information affects the vote share of the responsible party, with voters rewarding improvements and punishing poor audits by about 5 percentage points. Additional individual-level survey evidence confirms the underpinning behavioral response more generally. These results suggest that the effects of audits may depend on their scale – both their spatial and temporal coverage and the nature of their dissemination. Our study is the first to demonstrate electoral accountability effects of audits at full scale.

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Section: Discussioncontrasting

confidence: 61%

Audits for Accountability: Evidence from Municipal By-Elections in South Africa

Berliner¹,

Wehner²

2019

Preprint

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“…In 2014, the EFF found support in many of the regions of strong ANC support, extending through Gauteng, North West, and Free State. This represents a major challenge to the dominance of the ANC, particularly since it has been noted that the EFF represents a major challenger to the left of the ANC on the political spectrum (Booysen, 2018; Justesen and Schulz-Herzenberg, 2018). Vote-share outcomes are visualized again in Figure 4, though this time for the 2019 elections.…”

Section: Data Method and Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Protests became increasingly violent following the election of Jacob Zuma, particularly as fissures began to show within the party (Alexander et al, 2018; Von Holdt et al, 2011). The decline of the ANC’s popularity during the Zuma 7 administration (Booysen, 2018; Justesen and Schulz-Herzenberg, 2018), gains by the DA during this time, 8 and the emergence of the EFF highlight increasing voter sensitivity to government performance and dysfunction. 9…”

Section: Protest and Elections In South Africamentioning

confidence: 99%

Signals, strongholds, and support: Political party protests in South Africa

Lewis

2020

Politics

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South African politics are in a period of transition: the dominant African National Congress (ANC) is in decline, support for opposition parties has been rising, and voters have been disengaging rapidly from the electoral process. As protest movements have become more common and more powerful, established political parties have increasingly led their own protests, often addressing the same issues that citizens rise up about. This phenomenon has been understudied but has important ramifications for the future of South African politics. This article addresses this gap in the literature, arguing that party-led protests can be interpreted as costly signals of credible commitments to address the very issues that citizens are upset about. In a time when established parties are losing support, they may turn to these costly protests to demonstrate their commitment to addressing the needs of the people. Using counts of party-led protests and riots as well as election outcomes in the 2004, 2009, 2014, and 2019 national elections, this article demonstrates that party-led protests primarily target stronghold municipalities. In doing so, they positively correlate with vote-shares during elections. This boon accrues primarily to the opposition parties, but not the incumbent ANC.

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“…Its electoral success dwindled in the 2016 municipal elections, losing control of three key municipalities -Johannesburg, Tshwane, and Nelson Mandela Bay. The losses resulted from widespread mistrust and frustrations driven by its poor service delivery (Justesen & Schulz-Herzenberg, 2018), and lack of enthusiasm from its traditional base (Schulz-Herzenberg, 2016). Ramaphosa faced probably the least propitious electoral environment since the country's democratisation.…”

Section: Ramaphosamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, the DA had lost some of its political capital due to its difficulties in governing, especially in provincial and municipal coalitions. Most worryingly for the DA was that most black voters had not come to view it as a credible, broad-based alternative party (Justesen & Schulz-Herzenberg, 2018, p. 1147.…”

Section: Maimanementioning

confidence: 99%

The political struggle for ‘the people’: populist discourse in the 2019 South African elections

Nyenhuis

2020

Commonwealth & Comparative Politics

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This article investigates populist rhetoric in the 2019 South African elections. I argue that both Julius Malema and Dr. Pieter Groenewald consistently employed populist appeals. Although populism is mostly confined to smaller opposition parties, I demonstrate that all major leaders utilised populist rhetoric to some degree. I briefly investigate the consequences of the EFF's populism, and contend that their campaign rhetoric has largely been mirrored in their behaviour between elections, challenging South Africa's democracy. Lastly, both populists made explicitly racialised appeals, albeit to different constituencies, contravening the country's political norm of nonracialism, seen as underpinning its political stability.

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The Decline of the African National Congress in South Africa’s 2016 Municipal Elections

Cited by 15 publications

References 0 publications

Audits for Accountability: Evidence from Municipal By-Elections in South Africa

Audits for Accountability: Evidence from Municipal By-Elections in South Africa

Signals, strongholds, and support: Political party protests in South Africa

The political struggle for ‘the people’: populist discourse in the 2019 South African elections

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