Background Identification of blood biomarkers that prospectively predict progression of Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection to tuberculosis disease may lead to interventions that impact the epidemic. Methods Healthy, M. tuberculosis infected South African adolescents were followed for 2 years; blood was collected every 6 months. A prospective signature of risk was derived from whole blood RNA-Sequencing data by comparing participants who ultimately developed active tuberculosis disease (progressors) with those who remained healthy (matched controls). After adaptation to multiplex qRT-PCR, the signature was used to predict tuberculosis disease in untouched adolescent samples and in samples from independent cohorts of South African and Gambian adult progressors and controls. The latter participants were household contacts of adults with active pulmonary tuberculosis disease. Findings Of 6,363 adolescents screened, 46 progressors and 107 matched controls were identified. A 16 gene signature of risk was identified. The signature predicted tuberculosis progression with a sensitivity of 66·1% (95% confidence interval, 63·2–68·9) and a specificity of 80·6% (79·2–82·0) in the 12 months preceding tuberculosis diagnosis. The risk signature was validated in an untouched group of adolescents (p=0·018 for RNA-Seq and p=0·0095 for qRT-PCR) and in the independent South African and Gambian cohorts (p values <0·0001 by qRT-PCR) with a sensitivity of 53·7% (42·6–64·3) and a specificity of 82·8% (76·7–86) in 12 months preceding tuberculosis. Interpretation The whole blood tuberculosis risk signature prospectively identified persons at risk of developing active tuberculosis, opening the possibility for targeted intervention to prevent the disease. Funding Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, the National Institutes of Health, Aeras, the European Union and the South African Medical Research Council (detail at end of text).

Rationale: Contacts of patients with tuberculosis (TB) constitute an important target population for preventive measures because they are at high risk of infection with Mycobacterium tuberculosis and progression to disease.Objectives: We investigated biosignatures with predictive ability for incident TB.Methods: In a case-control study nested within the Grand Challenges 6-74 longitudinal HIV-negative African cohort of exposed household contacts, we employed RNA sequencing, PCR, and the pair ratio algorithm in a training/test set approach. Overall, 79 progressors who developed TB between 3 and 24 months after diagnosis of index case and 328 matched nonprogressors who remained healthy during 24 months of follow-up were investigated. Measurements and Main Results:A four-transcript signature derived from samples in a South African and Gambian training set predicted progression up to two years before onset of disease in blinded test set samples from South Africa, the Gambia, and Ethiopia with little population-associated variability, and it was also validated in an external cohort of South African adolescents with latent M. tuberculosis infection. By contrast, published diagnostic or prognostic TB signatures were predicted in samples from some but not all three countries, indicating site-specific variability. Post hoc meta-analysis identified a single gene pair, C1QC/TRAV27 (complement C1q C-chain / T-cell receptor-a variable gene 27) that would consistently predict TB progression in household contacts from multiple African sites but not in infected adolescents without known recent exposure events.Conclusions: Collectively, we developed a simple whole blood-based PCR test to predict TB in recently exposed household contacts from diverse African populations. This test has potential for implementation in national TB contact investigation programs.

Increasing knowledge about DosR regulon-encoded proteins has led us to produce novel Mycobacterium tuberculosis antigens for immunogenicity testing in human populations in three countries in Africa to which tuberculosis (TB) is endemic. A total of 131 tuberculin skin test-positive and/or ESAT-6/CFP10-positive, human immunodeficiency virus-negative adult household contacts of active pulmonary TB cases from South Africa (n ‫؍‬ 56), The Gambia (n ‫؍‬ 26), and Uganda (n ‫؍‬ 49) were tested for gamma interferon responses to 7 classical and 51 DosR regulon-encoded M. tuberculosis recombinant protein antigens. ESAT-6/CFP10 fusion protein evoked responses in >75% of study participants in all three countries. Of the DosR regulon-encoded antigens tested, Rv1733c was the most commonly recognized by participants from both South Africa and Uganda and the third most commonly recognized antigen in The Gambia. The four most frequently recognized DosR regulon-encoded antigens in Uganda (Rv1733c, Rv0081, Rv1735c, and Rv1737c) included the three most immunogenic antigens in South Africa. In contrast, Rv3131 induced the highest percentage of responders in Gambian contacts (38%), compared to only 3.4% of Ugandan contacts and no South African contacts. Appreciable percentages of TB contacts with a high likelihood of latent M. tuberculosis infection responded to several novel DosR regulon-encoded M. tuberculosis proteins. In addition to significant similarities in antigen recognition profiles between the three African population groups, there were also disparities, which may stem from genetic differences between both pathogen and host populations. Our findings have implications for the selection of potential TB vaccine candidates and for determining biosignatures of latent M. tuberculosis infection, active TB disease, and protective immunity.