An analysis of the occurrence of equatorial plasma bubbles (EPBs) around the world during the 2015 St. Patrick's Day geomagnetic storm is presented. A network of 12 Global Positioning System receivers spanning from South America to Southeast Asia was used, in addition to colocated VHF receivers at three stations and four nearby ionosondes. The suppression of postsunset EPBs was observed across most longitudes over 2 days. The EPB observations were compared to calculations of the linear Rayleigh‐Taylor growth rate using coupled thermosphere‐ionosphere modeling, which successfully modeled the transition of favorable EPB growth from postsunset to postmidnight hours during the storm. The mechanisms behind the growth of postmidnight EPBs during this storm were investigated. While the latter stages of postmidnight EPB growth were found to be dominated by disturbance dynamo effects, the initial stages of postmidnight EPB growth close to local midnight were found to be controlled by the higher altitudes of the plasma (i.e., the gravity term). Modeling and observations revealed that during the storm the ionospheric plasma was redistributed to higher altitudes in the low‐latitude region, which made the plasma more susceptible to Rayleigh‐Taylor growth prior to the dominance of the disturbance dynamo in the eventual generation of postmidnight EPBs.

[1] While the mechanism for producing plasma irregularities in the dusk sector is believed to be fairly well understood, the cause of the formation of irregularities and bubbles during the postmidnight sector is still unknown, especially for magnetically quiet periods. This paper presents a case study of the strong postmidnight bubbles that often occur during magnetically quiet periods primarily in June solstice, along with a 4 year (2009)(2010)(2011)(2012) statistical study that shows strong occurrence peak during June solstice predominantly in the African sector. We also confirm, for the first time, the presence of Rayleigh-Taylor (RT) instability during postmidnight hours by using the physics-based model for plasma densities and RT growth rates. Finally, we consider several possible sources of the eastward electric fields that permit the RT instability to develop and form bubbles in the postmidnight local time sector. Citation:

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Describing the day‐to‐day variability of Equatorial Plasma Bubble (EPB) occurrence remains a significant challenge. In this study we use the Thermosphere‐Ionosphere Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (TIEGCM), driven by solar (F10.7) and geomagnetic (Kp) activity indices, to study daily variations of the linear Rayleigh‐Taylor (R‐T) instability growth rate in relation to the measured scintillation strength at five longitudinally distributed stations. For locations characterized by generally favorable conditions for EPB growth (i.e., within the scintillation season for that location), we find that the TIEGCM is capable of identifying days when EPB development, determined from the calculated R‐T growth rate, is suppressed as a result of geomagnetic activity. Both observed and modeled upward plasma drifts indicate that the prereversal enhancement scales linearly with Kp from several hours prior, from which it is concluded that even small Kp changes cause significant variations in daily EPB growth.

Abstract. We report on the longitudinal, local time and seasonal occurrence of equatorial plasma bubbles (EPBs) and L band (GPS) scintillations over equatorial Africa. The measurements were made in 2010, as a first step toward establishing the climatology of ionospheric irregularities over Africa. The scintillation intensity is obtained by measuring the standard deviation of normalized GPS signal power. The EPBs are detected using an automated technique, where spectral analysis is used to extract and identify EPB events from the GPS TEC measurements.Overall, the observed seasonal climatology of the EPBs as well as GPS scintillations in equatorial Africa is adequately explained by geometric arguments, i.e., by the alignment of the solar terminator and local geomagnetic field, or STBA hypothesis (Tsunoda, 1985(Tsunoda, , 2010a. While plasma bubbles and scintillations are primarily observed during equinoctial periods, there are longitudinal differences in their seasonal occurrence statistics. The Atlantic sector has the most intense, longest lasting, and highest scintillation occurrence rate in-season. There is also a pronounced increase in the EPB occurrence rate during the June solstice moving west to east. In Africa, the seasonal occurrence shifts towards boreal summer solstice, with fewer occurrences and shorter durations in equinox seasons. Our results also suggest that the occurrence of plasma bubbles and GPS scintillations over Africa are well correlated, with scintillation intensity depending on depletion depth. A question remains about the possible physical mechanisms responsible for the difference in the occurrence phenomenology of EPBs and GPS scintillations between different regions in equatorial Africa.