The bacterium Yersinia pestis causes bubonic plague. In Central Asia, where human plague is still reported regularly, the bacterium is common in natural populations of great gerbils. By using field data from 1949 -1995 and previously undescribed statistical techniques, we show that Y. pestis prevalence in gerbils increases with warmer springs and wetter summers: A 1°C increase in spring is predicted to lead to a >50% increase in prevalence. Climatic conditions favoring plague apparently existed in this region at the onset of the Black Death as well as when the most recent plague pandemic arose in the same region, and they are expected to continue or become more favorable as a result of climate change. Threats of outbreaks may thus be increasing where humans live in close contact with rodents and fleas (or other wildlife) harboring endemic plague.Generalized Threshold Mixed Model ͉ historic and recent climatic conditions ͉ time-series data ͉ Yersinia pestis

In central Asia, the great gerbil (Rhombomys opimus) is the main host for the bacterium Yersinia pestis, the cause of bubonic plague. In order to prevent plague outbreaks, monitoring of the great gerbil has been carried out in Kazakhstan since the late 1940s. We use the resulting data to demonstrate that climate forcing synchronizes the dynamics of gerbils over large geographical areas. As it is known that gerbil densities need to exceed a threshold level for plague to persist, synchrony in gerbil abundance across large geographical areas is likely to be a condition for plague outbreaks at similar large scales. Here, we substantiate this proposition through autoregressive modelling involving the normalized differentiated vegetation index as a forcing covariate. Based upon predicted climate changes, our study suggests that during the next century, plague epizootics may become more frequent in central Asia.

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This chapter summarizes information about the natural foci of plague in the world. We describe the location, main hosts, and vectors of Yersinia pestis. The ecological features of the hosts and vectors of plague are listed, including predators - birds and mammals and their role in the epizootic. The epizootic process in plague and the factors affecting the dynamics of epizootic activity of natural foci of Y. pestis are described in detail. The mathematical models of the epizootic process in plague and predictive models are briefly described. The most comprehensive list of the hosts and vectors of Y. pestis in the world is presented as well.

Highlights► Local topography, Tasselled Cap Greenness and Tasselled Cap Brightness were used to create a landscape map using object-based analysis. ► A multi-scale object-based stratification approach improved accuracy of classification of burrows. ► The burrow maps provide realistic patterns to study the spread and persistence of plague.