La prospective a pour mission d'éclairer les décisions en explorant, de façon collective, le champ des futurs possibles et en dégageant différents scénarios pour l'avenir. Le CETIOM a choisi cette démarche pour étudier la compétitivité des oléagineux (colza et tournesol) en France en tenant compte du contexte européen et mondial à l'horizon 2010-2015. La concurrence entre les oléagineux métropolitains et les autres sources de corps gras s'exerce à tous les niveaux : production, transformation, consommation... Aussi, cette démarche prospective a mobilisé plus de nombreuses personnes de différentes disciplines, activités économiques et institutions. La méthode de prospective utilisée, développée à la DADP-INRA, est fondée sur une vision systémique du problème et fait appel aux modèles de représentation graphique. À l'issue de ce travail, sept dimensions stratégiques ont été retenues : * les agricultures et leurs relations avec leur environnement économique ; * la place de l'information dans la consommation des corps gras ; * la prise en compte des recommandations nutritionnelles par les industries de transformation ; * l'évolution des modèles d'alimentation animale ; * la place des oléagineux dans les systèmes de production ; * les oléagineux face au défi de l'environnement ; * l'impact des usages non alimentaires dans le développement des oléagineux. Pour chacune de ces sept dimensions, des microscénarios de futurs possibles ont été élaborés. Cet article présente brièvement les principaux traits des microscénarios de chacune de ces sept dimensions stratégiques. Summary : The objective of future studies is to enlighten decision-makers, by exploring collectively the sphere of possible futures and bringing out different scenarios for the future. CETIOM has carried out such an approach in order to assess the competitiveness of oilseed (rapeseed and sunflower) in France and Europe, taking into account the European and worldwide context by 2010-2015. The competition between domestic oilseed crops and other sources of fats takes place at all levels of the production, transformation and consumption processes. Thus, this future study has involved about 150 people from several scientific fields, economic bodies and institutions. The overall foresight methodology used has been designed by DADP-INRA and is based on a systemic view of the various issues addressed and requires graphic representation models. Seven strategic topics were accepted at the end of this work: * agriculture and its relationship with its economic environment; * the role of information on fat consumption; * the consideration of nutritional recommendations made by the transformation industries; * the evolution of animal feeding models; * the place of oilseed crops
Land Use and Cover Changes (LUCCs) significantly increase the frequency of mudflows in the silty areas of north-western Europe and particularly in the NUTS 3 Seine-Maritime region (France). Predicting the effects of a range of possible LUCCs helps local authorities choose policies that can help to mitigate the risks to which local populations are exposed. In this article we build scenarios for changes in farming systems, with a 2015 horizon and with 2007 as the initial situation. These scenarios are assessed through combined biophysical and economic approaches. Two scenarios for the disappearance of dairy farming are chosen. One scenario has no public-action program (StopMilk), while the other one has a program based on the funding of best management practices (StopMilk-E). These scenarios are assessed at the small watershed scale (7 km 2 ) in terms of both changes in farming systems and effects on runoff (use of the STREAM model). Finally, the economic evaluation of additional costs of StopMilk-E is extrapolated at the level of the Austreberthe watershed syndicate (214 km 2 ), using the French Land Parcel Identification System (LPIS) with a spatially referenced database of cropping plans. StopMilk leads to a significant increase in runoff whereas the local public-action program proposed under StopMilk-E reduces runoff to below the 2007 level. The Austreberthe watershed residents' willingness to pay for a 15-year program is around D 395,000/year, which is not sufficient to balance the cost of the modified farming practices (D 640,000/year over the first 3 years). Funding of the practices would require either subsidies from a higher level (Europe), borrowing by the community, and/or a more selective approach in the type and the location of farming practices to be funded. The method used for calculating costs at the watershed syndicate level shows the huge potential of new databases like LPIS (available in France since 2006) for the assessment of environmental issues.
Summary :The objective of foresight (future studies) is to enlighten decision-makers, by exploring collectively the sphere of possible "futures" and bringing out different scenarios for the future. CETIOM has carried out such an approach in order to assess oilseed (rapeseed and sunflower) competitiveness in France and Europe, taking into account the European and worldwide context by 2010-2015. The competition between domestic oilseeds and other sources of fats takes place at all levels of production, transformation and consumption processes. Thus, this future study has involved about 150 people from several scientific fields, economic bodies and institutions. The overall methodology used has been designed by INRA and is based on a systemic view of the various issues addressed and requires graphic representation models. Seven strategic topics have been set up at the end of this work: agricultures and their relationships with the economic environment ; the role of information on fat consumption ; the consideration of nutritional recommendations made by the transformation industries ; the evolution of animal feeding models ; the place of oilseeds within production systems ; oilseeds and the environmental challenge ; the impact of non-food uses as a driven force for oilseed development. For each of these seven topics, various scenarios were drawn up as well as their consequences on oilseed competitiveness and on the future of the economic and social sectors concerned.
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